Newsflow influences investor perception. In this section, we will try make short comment
and opinion on worthy newsflow items, both local and international.
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Tuesday 13 December 2005
MTN pays fair price for Congo
Yesterday MTN announced the purchase of 100% of the number 2 operator (Libertis) in Congo
Brazzaville for USD 102.5 mln.
One must not confuse Congo Brazzaville with the DRC. Congo Brazzaville is a small relatively
poor country with a population of around 3.5 mln. It is adjacent to the DRC and also
borders Cameroon, where MTN has a successful mobile operation. Congo Brazzaville is sparsely
populated - about a third as dense as South Africa with only 10 people per square kilometre.
In Congo Brazzaville, there are currently 2 mobile licenses. Libertis is the smaller player. It
competes with Celtel, who is dominant with 61% market share. Current penetration sits at around
13.9% or 487k subs.
Libertis was controlled by Orascom, the Egypt-based regional mobile operator, who had a 65% share.
It said in a press release it was selling Libertis to focus on its core operations in Algeria,
Pakistan, Egypt and Iraq.
As reported in Orascom's numbers to September 2005, Libertis had 195k subs as of Sep 05.
Its ARPU was USD 18.2 for the 3 months to Sep 05. For the 9 months to Sep 05, its revenue
was EGP 187 mln. (Egyptian Pounds) Using an average EGP/USD of 5.84 for the period, Libertis'
revenue was USD 32 mln. Its EBITDA for the same period was EGP 77 mln or USD 13 mln. Libertis
thus has a healthy EBITDA margin of around 41%.
If one assumes a tax rate of 30%, Libertis' annual net income is around USD 12 mln. The purchase
price implies a PE of around 8.5 times, which is undemanding and is lower than MTN's PE.
Based on our assumptions and our 10-year discounted free cash flow model, we value
Libertis at USD 108 mln. We conclude that the purchase price (USD 102.5 mln) is fair.
The deal yields a small positive NPV. Although the operation is small and not that material to
the MTN group, it will add incrementally to MTN's bottom line. There is also the potential for
regional synergies with nearby operations in the future.
Our assumptions for Libertis in Congo Brazzaville are as follows:
- total penetration to reach 40% or 1.4 mln subs by 2015
- MTN to increase its market share steadily from 39% to 50% over the period
- ARPU to decline steadily from current levels of USD 18 to the USD 15 level
- EBITDA margins to decline to a sustainable 35% from the 41% level currently
- We assume a tax rate of 30%
- We assume MTN can achieve a cumulative capex per subscriber of USD 100 in 10 yrs time.
This results in a 10-year capex spend going forward of USD 70 mln. We weight it more heavily in the earlier years.
- We use a terminal growth rate of 6% and a WACC of 18% for Congo
Our valuation of the Congo Brazzaville deal implies almost no change to our MTN valuation.
We still value the MTN group at ZAR 65 and continue recommending its shares to investors at current levels.
Monday 28 November 2005
Customer perspectives on Business Connexion and Telkom
Late last week we spoke with a senior IT manager at a large JSE-listed industrial company.
Two of its core IT suppliers are Business Connexion and Telkom, with whom it spends
tens of millions of Rands each year.
It has a large IT outsourcing contract with Business Connexion, whereby it outsources most
of its more basic IT functions like desktop maintenance. Its 3-year contract has recently been
renewed and on balance, the customer is very happy with BCX. The deal has enabled the customer
to cut out a large amount of costs in its IT function, predominantly through BCX's economies of
scale. As a result, the customer has far fewer IT staff on site. Most of the support is done
remotely from BCX's central call centre. Our source did say that BCX needed to be constantly
managed - they could not be left to their own devices. That said, they did feel they were getting
the best service available.
With Telkom, the customer has a large contract for the provision and ongoing management
of its wide area network environment and Internet access. Our source says that Telkom has
improved leaps and bounds over the past 5-years in this regard and considers it to be in a
"different league altogether". We are told that Telkom has excellent technical skills, particularly
with respect to network architecture. The customer appreciated Telkom's "product neutral" stance
versus for example Didata, which it felt was heavily aligned toward Cisco. In addition, Telkom's
sheer size of its infrastructure and the resulting economies of scale allows it to compete at a
cost far lower than any of its competitors, according to the customer.
On the potential buyout of BCX, the customer said it would prefer it if Telkom ended
up the winning suitor. Our source felt that it would be a win for them if this happened.
Friday 25 November 2005
MTN interims - spreading its wings
We attended the results presentation yesterday for the 6 months to September 2005 at MTN's
headquarters in Fairland.
Yet again, a very good performance in our opinion. Group revenue was up 25% year-on-year
to ZAR 17 bln. The EBITDA margin was up to 42% from 41% at the full year. A HEPS
growth of 31% to 234 cents was achieved. We calculate an annualised return on equity of 41%.
MTN South Africa put in a steady performance with revenue up 19% to ZAR 9.8 bln
and the same y-o-y EBITDA margin of 33%. Subscribers grew 12% since March to 9 million
with a 9% decline in blended ARPU to ZAR 168. The numbers were boosted by buoyant handset sales.
Although management conceded a loss of subscriber market share, particularly in the prepaid area,
we calculate that MTN has not lost its share of revenue. The split between MTN and Vodacom's
South African revenues has remained remarkably consistent over the past 3 years.
The "printing press" in Nigeria continues with revenue up 29% to ZAR 5.9 bln.
Most impressive was the maintenance of the super high EBITDA margin at 52%. Subscribers grew
by 38% since March to 7.7 million and a lower ARPU of USD 23 was reported. Management felt that
recent competitive pressures on tariffs have eased. MTN maintained its subscriber market share of
47% and explained to us after the presentation that their share of network traffic is still in
the region of 55-60%. MTN estimates a total market of 25-30 mln subscribers by 2009 and are
aiming to capture 50% of it.
Not much extra insight was obtained on the new Iran license. MTN said they would give
more details soon. Nevertheless, we have modified our Iranian model and we derive a higher
value per share of ZAR 5 (versus our previous ZAR 2). We have increased our 10-year penetration estimate
to 60%, applied the applicable tax rate of 25% and adjusted our cumulative capex/subscriber estimate
downward, closer to the USD 100 level.
Assuming MTN was not changing their year-end, we estimate HEPS growth of 30% to 500 cents for the
full year to March 2006. At yesterday's close of 5695 cents, it represents a 6-month forward
PE of 11 times. This is undemanding since we believe HEPS growth of 25-30% is achievable for
the next two years.
Based on these interims, we have made adjustments to our 10-year discounted free cash flow
valuations of MTN's various operations. We now derive a present value of ZAR 65 per
share. Some of the more significant changes include higher revenue growth in SA in the
short-term, a slight lengthening of the super-normal EBITDA margin period in Nigeria, a reduction
in Nigerian capex, inclusion of the new African operations and as mentioned above, a reworking of
the Iranian forecasts. The breakdown of our ZAR 65 valuation is roughly: ZAR 30 for South Africa,
ZAR 25 for Nigeria, ZAR 5 for the Rest of Africa and ZAR 5 for Iran.
Our valuation implies an enterprise value for MTN of ZAR 108 bln or a 12-month trailing EV/EBITDA
multiple of 8 times. The recent Vodafone/Venfin transaction implies an EV/EBITDA of 9
times for Vodacom (if one assumes a 20% control premium). This would imply an MTN share price
of ZAR 73.
MTN is spreading its wings. The recent acquisitions in the rest of Africa will add incrementally
to the group's profits and offers potential for regional synergies down the line. We believe the
Iranian move is a good one and bodes well for MTN's longer-term profit growth. We believe that MTN
shares trade below their fundamental value and we continue recommending them to investors at current
levels.
Tuesday 15 November 2005
Telkom interims - more fat is cut out
We attended Vodacom and Telkom's interim results presentations yesterday for the 6 months to
September 2005 in Midrand.
Yet again, it was an excellent performance, driven by good growth in Vodacom and further
cost cuts in the fixed-line business. Group revenue was up 10% to ZAR 23.5 bln. The
group EBIT margin was up massively to 32% from 26% at the full year. HEPS was up 35%
to 776 cents. We calculate an annualised Return on Equity of 34%.
The fixed line business grew revenue by 4%, which was higher than we expected. Data, which
makes up 20% of revenue, grew by a healthy 18% to ZAR 3.2 bln. But in the main, the driver in
this business was further cost cutting. Employee costs, which are roughly a third of all
expenses, was down 10% or by around ZAR 330 mln, mainly on a 18% reduction in the headcount,
which now sits at 26,222 employees. SG&A was down around ZAR 50 mln, despite the revenue
growth. Consultancy fees was down ZAR 50 mln, mainly on less fees paid to Thintana. There
was also an 8% reduction in the vehicle fleet, leading to lower lease charges by around
ZAR 30 mln. It would seem that while most of the cost cuts have been done, there is still room
for more. For example, employee costs/revenue is now at 19%. Management are aiming for 17%
in two years time.
New CEO Papi Molotsane seemed comfortable and confident. He appears to have grasped the
major issues remarkably well, considering he has only been in the position for 2 months.
The fixed-line business is currently in its best shape ever. However, going forward, it will
face increasing challenges from numerous angles, including the SNO and more regulatory pressure.
That said, there are opportunities in other African markets, like Nigeria.
Vodacom put in a stellar performance, driven by yet again, strong growth in South Africa
and a better performance in the remaining African operations. In South Africa, revenue was up a
strong 23% on a 39% increase in subscribers and a 11% decrease in blended ARPU. There was a
huge year on year improvement in the SA EBIT margin from 23% to 28%! This is a classic display
of economies of scale and the power of being dominant with most operating expense items increasing
by less than the revenue increase. Management believe that a further small improvement in margins
can be achieved to the full year.
South Africa still dominates the Vodacom pie with 91% of revenue and 94% of EBITDA. So it was
encouraging to hear CEO Alan Knott-Craig's views on the likely effects of the pending increase
in shareholding by Vodafone. He explained that Vodafone would more than likely lift its
restrictions on Vodacom seeking new African assets north of the equator. He also said that
in time, Vodafone may even incorporate its Kenyan and Egyptian operations into Vodacom.
This bodes well for Vodacom's longer-term growth prospects, since the South African market is not
going to grow for ever and (in our opinion) Vodacom can't rely too much on margin improvement
from these levels.
On a simple view, at yesterday's close of 13745 cents, Telkom still presents a compelling investment
case. We believe that 30% HEPS growth to 1656 cents is achievable for the full year to Mar 06.
This puts Telkom on an undemanding 6-month forward PE of 8.3 times. While future dividends depend
on what happens with expansion plans, the historic dividend yield is a large 6.5%.
Our 10-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of ZAR 140 per
share. We value the fixed-line business at ZAR 55 bln. On these interims, the main change has
been an upgrade to our margin forecasts in the medium term. We still take them down to 15% in
10 years time. Our SNO market share of 18% in 5 years remains unchanged. We value Vodacom at
ZAR 60 bln. Based on these interims, we have also upgraded our margin forecasts and to some
extent, revenue growth in the medium term. We use a WACC of 14% for the fixed-line business and
15% for Vodacom. We use a terminal growth rate of 4% for the fixed-line business and 5% for
Vodacom.
However, if one uses the Vodacom valuation implied in the proposed Vodafone/Venfin transaction, the
Telkom valuation increases somewhat. Assuming a 20% premium for control in the implied Vodacom
ZAR 106 bln valuation, we get a more "realistic" value of ZAR 85 bln. Substituting this number
into our Telkom model yields a Telkom valuation of ZAR 163 or 19% upside from the current
share price. However, this exercise is debatable on many fronts, including the assumed control premium
and the likelihood of Telkom being able to sell its 50% stake at this price in future.
Nevertheless, a reasonable valuation for Telkom is probably somewhere in-between, say around the
ZAR 150 level or 10% above the current share price.
All things considered, we believe the share is fairly valued and we would be holders at current
levels.
Friday 11 November 2005
MTN pays top dollar for MASCOM Botswana
Yesterday, MTN announced that it had purchased a 44% indirect stake in MASCOM for around USD 128
mln. It implies a valuation for the whole of MASCOM of BWP 1.65 bln. (Botswana Pula).
MASCOM is Botswana's flagship mobile operator with over 70% market share and 440k subscribers.
It currently has only one competitor (Orange). Botswana is a peaceful stable country with a small
population of around 1.7 million.
The deal is in line with MTN's strategy for Africa and MASCOM is a high quality asset. Although
not that material, it will complement the group's other operations and add to the bottom line.
However, based on our experience in the region and our assumptions for MASCOM, we do believe that
MTN has paid top dollar. We value MASCOM currently at BWP 1.4 bln.
Our key assumptions are as follows:
- stable market share with 526k subs in 2014 (45% mobile penetration)
- ARPUs relatively stable at BWP 105 in the short-term and ticking up gently in the future
- EBITDA margins declining to a long-term level of 34% (from around 50% currently)
- Capex/sales declining to around the 8% level from around 15% currently.
Our model shows that the BWP 1.65 bln valuation could be justified if we assume a long-run
EBITDA margin level of 40%, instead of our 34%.
There is also the possibility that a MVNO could be licensed in Botswana. This would impact the valuation negatively.
Despite the recent display of demand for high growth mobile assets (e.g. Vodafone/Venfin), which
are becoming increasingly scarce, it looks to us as if MTN has paid a full price for this one.
Friday 4 November 2005
Vodafone crystallises the value of Vodacom
Yesterday's announcement regarding the intended sale of Vodacom from Venfin to Vodafone implies
a value of around ZAR 16 bln for the 15% stake. This would imply a total value for Vodacom of
around ZAR 106 bln.
This is considerably higher than our Vodacom valuation of ZAR 55 bln and is even higher than
Venfin's estimate of ZAR 80 bln. It has material short-term implications for the various
telecoms stocks, part of which was witnessed yesterday. But more importantly, it suggests that
perhaps high growth mobile operators are more valuable than we thought.
The ZAR 106 bln Vodacom value implies a historic (Mar 05) EV/EBITDA multiple of 11 times and a
forward multiple of 10 times (using our Mar 06 EBITDA forecast of ZAR 10.5 bln). It also implies
a historic PE multiple of 27 times and a forward PE multiple of 22 times on our Mar 06 earnings
estimate of around ZAR 4.9 bln. We calculate an EV/subscriber of ZAR 6200 on Vodacom's
17.1 mln subscribers as of June 05.
This is great news for Telkom shareholders. Substituting in the ZAR 106 bln for Vodacom
boosts our Telkom valuation to ZAR 180 per share (from ZAR 135). At ZAR 142.5 TKG currently
trades at a 20% discount to this value. Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that Vodafone
will be buying Telkom's 50% stake in Vodacom at the same price, if at all. But it does symbolise
that Telkom's investment in Vodacom is worth more than we thought previously.
The intended deal has positive implications for MTN too. Perhaps another major global
mobile player may come in and pay top dollar for MTN's operations? Using the historic EV/EBITDA
multiple of the Vodacom deal (11 times) and MTN's historic EBITDA to Mar 05 of ZAR 12 bln, we
calculate a value for MTN of around ZAR 132 bln or ZAR 80 per share. It is currently trading at
ZAR 59, or a 26% discount. Even on an EV/subscriber basis, it would imply that MTN has a
similar value to Vodacom of ZAR 106 bln, since they both had around 17 mln subscribers to June
05. This would yield an MTN valuation of ZAR 66 per share, or 12% above its current share price.
In summary, the intended deal bodes well for shareholders of Venfin, Telkom and MTN. We
would be holders of Telkom shares and continue recommending MTN, even at current levels.
Tuesday 1 November 2005
Jasco interims - starting to fire on all 3 cylinders
We attended Jasco's results presentation yesterday for the 6 months to August 2005.
Overall, it was a very good performance. The individual segments bettered our expectations.
Revenue was up a healthy 23% to ZAR 150 mln. The group EBIT margin came in at 6.9%
and HEPS grew 43% to 10.6 cents per share.
Jasco's largest segment, Telecoms - which contributes around 60% of group revenue and
profit, posted healthy numbers. Revenue was up year-on-year by 16% to ZAR 84 mln. Its
EBIT margin also improved nicely to 12.8% from 12% at the full year. This area has
benefited from increased business with Telkom, which we believe will continue.
The manufacturing operation (mainly electrical components for domestic appliances)
continues to feel the effects of the buoyant consumer environment. Revenue was up 19%
to ZAR 40 mln and margins were stable year-on-year at 12.5%. Management also cited a
wider product range and an improvement in the automotive area.
Previously a problem child, Jasco's Security segment has proved its turnaround. Revenue
was up 65% to ZAR 24 mln with an EBIT margin of 7.2% compared to 5.7% at the full
year. A year ago, this business was unprofitable.
A negative for us in these results was the large increase in head-office costs for the
6-month period. We calculate it at around ZAR 7 mln. (It was around ZAR 11 mln for the full year.)
Management attribute this mainly to the cost of restructuring the management team. Some of it
will not be repeated in the 2007 year. Nevertheless, these costs tainted a superb segmental
performance.
The cash flows are not commensurate with the performance achieved. Operating cash flows were a
negative ZAR 1 mln. This can largely be attributed to an increase in working capital (we
calculate by around ZAR 8 mln) and the payment of last year's dividend. Large sales were done
close to the period end that were not collected. Management are confident that this will
improve for the full year. The balance sheet is healthy (albeit undergeared), with very little
debt (ZAR 2.3 mln) and no cash.
For the year to Feb 2006, we have upgraded our forecast of HEPS from 23 to 25.1 cents per
share. What surprised us in these results was the revenue growth and the extent of the
turnaround in the Security segment. It has been mitigated somewhat by the higher head-office
costs. Overall, we now expect group revenue growth for the full year of 21% and a group EBIT
margin of 8.6%. Management is targeting a group EBIT margin of 10% in the longer term.
Our HEPS forecast puts Jasco on a forward PE (to year end) of 9 times, given yesterday's
close of 225 cents. We calculate a 12-month rolling forward PE of 7.1 times. These are
undemanding multiples. Given a 3 times dividend cover policy, we forecast a respectable forward
dividend yield of 3.7%.
On a longer term basis, our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present
value of 289 cents per share. We have revenue growth tapering down to 11%, EBIT margins
increasing to the 10% level and working capital draining 1.5% of sales. Our terminal growth
rate is 6% and we use a fairly high WACC of 16%, despite management's Debt/Equity target of 25%.
Jasco is a well diversified electronics group with good management and bright prospects. It is
starting to fire on all 3 cylinders. With its great BEE credentials, we believe it is well
positioned to benefit in certain areas of the infrastructural spend expected in SA over the
next 5 years. There are also potential synergies with other operations in its parent CIH group.
The multiples are undemanding and our DCF valuation shows good upside. We upgrade our recommendation
to a BUY.
Thursday 27 October 2005
Datatec interims - impressive margin improvement
We attended the analyst presentation yesterday for the group's interim results to August 2005.
All-round it was a solid improvement driven by healthy revenue growth and impressive margin improvement.
Revenue was up 16% to USD 1.44 bln. EBITDA margins more than doubled to 2.7% from
1.1% for the full year. A HEPS of 12 US cents was reported.
The group continues to be dominated by its US-based global networking equipment distributor,
Westcon. This unit contributes around 80% of the group's revenue and profit. Understanding
the drivers of this business is key. Its revenue was up a healthy 8% year-on-year to
USD 1.1 bln on an uptick in the global demand for networking and related products. This should
continue. Gross margins were also up to 8.5% (8.1% if you exclude a one-off gain) from
the low sevens a year ago. According to management, the gross margin improvement over the last
few periods has come from a number of areas. Firstly, the IT cycle has turned and
pressure from leading vendors such as Cisco (around 60% of Westcon sales) is easing. The group
has also improved its product mix toward higher margin areas and continues to work on
rebates and negotiating better prices with its vendors. Management estimate that a gross margin
of 8.5% is achievable.
The other contributor to improved margins at Westcon was a reduction in the operating costs to
5.8% of sales. This has come down steadily over the past 18 months from around the 7% level.
Management are aiming to keep it in the 5-6% range. Overall, Westcon's EBITDA margin came in at
2.7%, up from 1.2% for the full year. Owing to its size, a small increase in the gross margin and
reduction in the operating costs leads to a massive increase in profits, as we have seen in the
last two reporting periods.
Datatec's other operations, its ICT integrator - Logicalis and its consultancy - Analysys
Mason Group, performed well for the period.
Overall, the group produced good cash flows and the balance sheet is healthy. The group
has around USD 208 mln of cash on hand and around USD 99 mln of debt.
For the coming year to Feb 2006, we forecast HEPS of 24 US cents, or 155 ZA cents (using
our estimate of a 6.5 ZAR/USD average exchange rate). We forecast revenue of USD 2.86 bln and
an EBITDA margin of 2.7%. At yesterday's close of 1750 cents, our forecast puts Datatec on a
6-month forward PE of 11.3, which is fair.
On a longer term view, our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value
per share of USD 2.74, or ZAR 18.44 (at yesterday's ZAR/USD rate of 6.72). For Westcon, we
assume sales growth tapers down to 5%, gross margins reach 8.5% and EBITDA margins reach 3%.
For the other businesses, we have been conservative. We have assumed, quite generously, that
working capital requirements are only 1% of sales. We use a terminal growth rate of 4% and a
lower WACC of 11%, given that our free cash flows are in USD.
The Datatec share price has doubled over the past 6 months. At current levels of 1750 cents, we
believe it is fairly valued. We would be holders.
Friday 21 October 2005
What is MTN Iran potentially worth? - ZAR 2 per share
Yesterday, MTN announced that it has become a 49% shareholder in the Irancell consortium, which
currently has the provisional 2nd GSM license in Iran. Assuming all goes through as
planned, we tried to work out what this would be worth for MTN shareholders.
Based on our assumptions, we calculate that the 49% stake is worth around ZAR 2 per share.
Using a 10-year discounted free cash flow model, we estimate that the 2nd Iranian GSM license is
worth around USD 1 billion. MTN gets 49% of this and we convert to ZAR to yield a value of
ZAR 3.2 bln, or just under ZAR 2 per share.
Some of our key assumptions are as follows:
- Iran has a population of 68 million. We assume a mobile penetration of 42% in 10 years.
There are currently around 4 mln subs or a 6% penetration.
- We assume MTN's consortium ends up with a 40% market share or 11 million subs in year
10. We are unsure of how many other licenses may be awarded in the period.
- We assume that ARPUs taper down to the mid twenties (in USD terms), which is fair.
- We assume that EBITDA margins increase to around the 40% level.
- Key to the forecast is the capex required. We have assumed that they can get to a
cumulative capex per subscriber of around USD 200 in year 10 and we front load the capex heavily
in the first 3 years. This cumulative capex per subscriber estimate is roughly where the 10 year
old MTN network in SA is currently. The population density of Iran and SA are similar. All in
all, we are saying that the total capex for the 10 years will be around USD 2 billion.
- The corporate tax rate in Iran appears steep (top tax rates seem to be around the 50% level).
We're not sure of tax holidays etc, so we will assume a tax rate of 40% for the period.
- We factor in the EUR 300 mln upfront license fee.
- We also assume working capital requirements at 1% of sales.
- For Iran, we use a WACC of 18% and a terminal growth rate of 6%.
All in all, the deal does appear to be value enhancing.
Although MTN shares have risen closer to our current DCF value of ZAR 52 per share, we do believe that
the Iranian opportunity, if finalised, would increase this value. We continue to recommend MTN
shares to investors.
Wednesday 19 October 2005
Jasco update - on track for full year
Yesterday, Jasco announced in a trading update that HEPS would be up between 35 and 45%
for the interim results to August 2005.
This is spot on with our forecast we made (in April this year) of 41% growth for the full year
to Feb 2006. We are forecasting HEPS of 23 cents, which puts Jasco on a forward PE of 9.6,
given yesterday's close of 220 cents.
We believe the company is fairly valued and maintain our hold recommendation.
Wednesday 12 October 2005
Telecoms pricing colloquium 2 - wait and see
Yesterday we attended the second telecoms pricing colloquium held by the department of
communications (DOC) in Midrand. In a nutshell, it is government's attempt to harvest ideas
from the industry for lowering the price of telecommunications in South Africa.
On a positive note, it does suggest a change of heart from government of late to play its part
in making the industry more competitive and better for all.
While the session yesterday proceeded fairly smoothly, there was no lack of the usual incumbent
bashing and follow-up "defence" speeches.
One of the presentations from the ITU highlighted how South Africa's fixed-line market had
stagnated over the last 10 years, relative to the rest of Africa. The main reason is a lack
of competition.
Overall, the sector can be improved and stimulated by making it more competitive. The second
colloquium intends debating the suggestions from the first one held in July. Among other things,
they include a speedy licensing of the SNO, self-provision for the VANs, unbundling of the
local loop, strict regulation of international gateways and a strengthening of the regulator.
There is clearly no shortage of ideas from the industry on how to improve things.
The DOC intends holding a 2 week period after the colloquium for submissions from stakeholders on
the various suggestions. What happens thereafter is not clear. While the intentions look good,
it remains to be seen if, how and when any of the suggestions will be implemented.
Friday 7 October 2005
Our top picks outperform - 9 months into 2005
At the beginning of this year, we selected our 8 top technology picks for 2005. We're now 3
quarters into 2005. As a group, our picks have outperformed the main IT index for the year.
Our calculations use prices as of 26 December 2004 to yesterday (6 Oct 05), and exclude dividend
income. The returns, presented in order of performance, are as follows:
Pinnacle - UP 165% to 130 (from 49)
Digicore - UP 58% to 229 (from 145)
EOH - UP 17% to 490 (from 420)
MTN - UP 13% to 4830 (from 4286)
Mustek - down 2% to 930 (from 950)
ERP.com - down 6% to 150 (from 160)
Datacentrix - down 8% to 240 (from 260)
Altech - down 9% to 4200 (from 4600)
An equally weighted portfolio with each of the 8 stocks would have yielded a return of
28% year to date. This is good going, considering that the JSE IT index is up 17% and
the NASDAQ index is DOWN 4% over the same period. Interestingly, the JSE All Share Index
is up 30%.
In the last 3 months, we have seen further strength from Pinnacle, a sharp rise in Digicore, good
increases from MTN and EOH and a decline in Datacentrix.
A brief summary of our thoughts on each of the companies are as follows:
Pinnacle
Great results recently and good prospects going forward to increase market share. With a low
forward PE of 6.5 on what we believe is our fairly conservative HEPS forecast to June 2006 of
20 cents, it still looks undervalued. Our current DCF value is 181 cents.
Digicore
Great results recently and good underlying fundamentals. With vehicle sales still strong and
petrol prices on the up, fleet owners are increasingly turning to Digicore for efficiencies from
fleet management systems. The group will also enter the upper end of the stolen vehicle recovery
area soon. Offshore business is also looking positive. We forecast a HEPS of 26.7 cents for the
year to June 2006, which gives an undemanding forward PE of 8.5. Our DCF value of 297 cents shows
further upside.
EOH
The group is maturing into a solid and sizeable IT services company with good growth opportunities
in our opinion. It has an attractive forward PE of 7.7 (HEPS forecast of 64 cents) and there is
further upside to our 593 cents DCF value. We like management and the excellent track record.
MTN
Overall, we believe the African mobile sector is a good bet. MTN has proved itself as an
excellent vehicle for this. It has displayed its ability on several occasions to enter various
African markets, overcome local operational issues, perform well and above all, generate large
amounts of cash. While the share has moved closer to our ZAR 52 DCF value, we believe there is
further upside.
Mustek
The shares have declined considerably of late presenting a great buying opportunity in our
opinion. Although we expect slower growth from SA's largest PC assembler than its smaller rival,
Pinnacle, we like the company's track record and quality. We forecast HEPS of 102 cents, yielding
an undemanding forward PE of 9.1. Our DCF value of 1182 cents, combined with a forward dividend
yield of above 6%, makes this a compelling investment.
ERP.com
Recent results have reassured us that the high margins in this business, largely derived from its
successful IT Security operation, will stay stronger for longer. With considerable upside to our
205 cents DCF value and an undemanding forward PE of 8.1 (on our forecast of 18.5 cents in HEPS),
ERP.com is a good bet in our opinion.
Datacentrix
The recent poor interim results did surprise us. Nevertheless, we believe that the underlying business
model is in tact and that management will be able to turn things around. That said, we have
revised our HEPS forecast downward for the year to Feb 06. We now forecast 20.6 cents per share
which puts Datacentrix on a forward PE of 11.7 times. Although this is a bit rich, our DCF value
of 347 cents (which assumes a recovery from 2007 onwards) shows good upside. If Datacentrix drops
further, it will be a great longer-term buy in our opinion.
Altech
Despite the abrupt end to the African mobile JV with Econet, the group continued to post a solid
set of interim results recently. Its core businesses are all performing well, except for a
temporary hiccup with NamiTech in Nigeria. The question is what will they do with the huge
ZAR 1 bln cash pile? One thing's for sure, Altech has displayed an astute ability to spend its
money well. The cash will also make solid dividends more certain. Our forecasts yield a fair
12-month forward PE of 9.5 and we have a DCF value of 4732 cents. We have a forward dividend
yield of 4.7%
Friday 30 September 2005
Altech interims - gaining momentum
We attended the company's interim results presentation last night for the 6 months to August
2005. Overall, the numbers were good, with many of its business units gaining momentum.
Group revenue was up 11% to ZAR 2.9 bln. The operating profit margin declined to 8.5%
from 8.9% last year. However if one strips out the ZAR 20 mln operating loss from the
Econet JV (which has been discontinued), then we calculate a healthy increase in profit margin to
9.2%. HEPS grew by 15% to 181 cents per share.
We now turn our attention to the major operating subsidiaries, which collectively contributed 87%
of group revenue and 93% of operating profit. (The discussions below are based on our
calculations of each unit's performance from the additional segmental disclosures given in the
presentation.)
AUTOPAGE continued its previous strong performance with 19% revenue growth to ZAR 1803
mln. Its operating profit margin also increased to 7.2% from 6.6% last year. Management
explained that long-term service provider agreements were about to be signed with Vodacom and
MTN, guaranteeing that margins would not be worse off than in the past. They also put rest
to the speculation that the mobile operators would be buying out Autopage. This is reassuring,
since Autopage is the pillar of strength for the group. (61% of group revenue and 51% of group
operating profit). Autopage will continue to seek opportunities in the MVNO environment and try
leverage its distribution network further by offering additional products and services.
For us, NETSTAR was the star performer in this period. Revenue growth of 22% was
higher than last year's 15%, taking sales to ZAR 231 mln. Its operating profit margin increased
massively to 31.2% from 23.6% last year. Management felt that it could increase further,
since most of the infrastructure had been rolled out and it was achieving economies of scale
with additional subscribers. While the stolen vehicle recovery service contributes the majority,
good progress is being made on the fleet management side. Netstar's market share remained fairly
constant at 45% with 378,000 subscribers. The underlying market growth was around 20%.
NamiTech underperformed this period. Revenue declined 13% to ZAR 307 mln and
margins were down to 10% from 16.7% last year. Management said that the main reason for
this was a delay in the correct set up of a pre-paid voucher printer in the new manufacturing
facility in Nigeria. To honour their customer, MTN Nigeria, NamiTech imported vouchers from its
plant in SA and supplied them to MTN Nigeria at a zero margin. The situation has now been
rectified. Management are confident that over the longer term, the Nigerian business will
perform exceptionally well and could surpass the South African activities. We agree.
UEC, the set-top box manufacturer, showed an encouraging return to profitability.
Although revenue was down 35% year-on-year to ZAR 230 mln, we calculate that it was up
9% sequentially. Its operating profit margin was 1.3%, up from zero last year. Management
are confident of higher margins going forward, given the more sophisticated "boxes" being
produced, such as the dual-view decoder and personal video recorder (PVR). CEO, Craig Venter is
committed to making a success of this business. We are surprised though that management are
only aiming for a 6% margin, given the high level of intellectual property here.
Before working capital, the group was highly cash generative. Of the ZAR 194 mln of cash drained
from working capital, two large payments totalling ZAR 140 mln were paid on the last day of the
period. So this situation should reverse for the full year. The balance sheet remains strong
and undergeared with cash on hand of ZAR 564 mln and debt of ZAR 70 mln. We calculate an
annualised return on equity of above 20%.
Although the termination of the Econet JV is negative in our opinion, from the perspective of
longer term growth for the group, we commend management for reaching a speedy conclusion. The
ZAR 155 mln profit is also a huge bonus! After receiving these funds, the Altech cash
war chest sits at over ZAR 1 bln. To this end, management explained that they were actively
seeking acquisitions across the whole TMT sector, not only in the African mobile operator space.
Time will tell how this unfolds, but given management's track record, we believe that this
money will be put to good use.
Going forward to Feb 2006, we forecast 17% HEPS growth to 397 cents per share. It's based
on group revenue growth of 10% and an increase in the operating margin to 9.1%. We have factored
in a continued good performance for AUTOPAGE, growth and slightly increasing margins for
NETSTAR, a continuation of the turnaround at UEC and some recovery for NamiTech for the second
half.
At yesterday's close of 4267 cents, our forecasts put Altech on a 6-month forward PE (to year
end) of 10.7 and a 12-month forward PE of 9.5. We feel this is fair. We calculate a
forward dividend yield of 4.7%, which is attractive.
Our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of 4732 cents.
We have been conservative in our revenue and margin assumptions. We assume 1.5% of sales for
working capital. Our terminal growth rate is 6% and we use a WACC of 15%. We do account for the
minorities in NamiTech (28%), Isis (25%) and ACS (25%).
Altech is a large group with a good track record. It has built up many good businesses which
are highly cash generative. Although the PE multiples do not reveal huge value, our DCF valuation does
show around 11% upside. Combined with the good dividend yield, we continue to recommend the
shares to investors at current levels.
Wednesday 28 September 2005
Datacentrix interims - setback in infrastructure
We attended the company's interim results presentation yesterday for the 6 months to August 2005.
Overall, a disappointing performance from a group that has produced consistently good
results for many years. Revenue was down 7% to ZAR 411 mln. As a result, the EBIT margin
declined to 4.4% from the 7% level at the full year. HEPS came in 42% lower at 8.6
cents.
In simple terms, Datacentrix has two core businesses - infrastructure and solutions.
Infrastructure dominates with around 85% of revenue and management explained that the mix has
stayed constant this period. In this business, it mainly sells high-end server hardware
(predominantly HP) to large enterprises. Its solutions business has a number of areas, such as
ERP, Business Intelligence, Content Management and others.
The main reason given by management for the poor performance this period was a slowdown in
infrastructure sales. They do not ascribe this to an industry phenomenon but admit that their
change in sales strategy did not work. Their sales people were given a wider range of product to
sell, which included special value-added offerings. Management explained that this led to a loss
of focus with regard to traditional basic infrastructure sales. The situation has now been corrected
by reorganising the sales force into two separate units - a traditional basic sales unit and one
that focuses on value-added offerings. Management is confident that this "back to basics" approach
will reverse the situation. They also cited fierce infrastructure competition and some problems in
the ERP unit of the solutions segment as contributing factors to this period's revenue slowdown.
In our opinion, the setback this period is not a once-off glitch that will automatically
reverse. Its going to take some time and a fair amount of effort. Although the pressure is
now on, given management's track record, we are comfortable that they will be able to rectify the
situation.
Although not disclosed, management reassured us that gross margins were stable. They felt
that if revenue returns, it will translate into higher EBIT margins. However, we must point out
that the group has grown its staff complement this period to 620 from 567 at the full year. Since
staff costs make up 80-85% of operating expenses, we expect further increases in the cost base for
the full year to Feb 06. Management did say that they would refrain from hiring new staff until
good revenue growth returns.
Cash flows were good and the balance sheet remains strong with no debt and ZAR 169 mln of
cash on hand. Management said that they would consider distributing excess cash via higher
dividends and/or share buybacks.
For the full year to Feb 2006, we forecast HEPS of 20.6 cents per share. For us, the
biggest unknown here is the revenue in the second 6 months. We assume, quite generously, that
management's reorganisation of the sales force pays off and that revenue in the 2nd half is
ZAR 473 mln, 7% up on the corresponding half last year. Bear in mind that the second half is
usually much tougher than the first half because of the slow Dec/Jan period. Nevertheless,
we have overall revenue for the year coming in flat at ZAR 885 mln. We assume similar gross
margins to last year and some increase in the cost base. The EBIT margin comes out at 4.7%.
At yesterday's close of 255 cents, our forecast puts Datacentrix on a forward PE of 12.4,
which we feel is too high. We derive a "core forward PE" of 10.3, which is also a bit
rich. This excludes the effects of their large cash pile and the after tax interest earned.
However, if one looks further out into the future, we believe that the group will get back on
track and deliver better results. The basic business model at Datacentrix has not changed and
the core underlying drivers in their industry segments remain positive.
Our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of 347 cents per share.
We assume revenue growth returns to 15% in 2007 and tapers down to 10% thereafter. We also taper
gross margins down slightly and assume modest increases in operating costs. We assume working
capital requirements of 1.5% of sales. We use a terminal growth rate of 6% and a WACC of 16.5%.
Overall, the group has had a setback and will have a challenging year to Feb 2006. Despite the
sharp drop in the share price since the trading update, the current share price still looks too
high, given our forecast for the full year. We would not be surprised if the share drops even
further to around the 200 cents level. However, in our opinion, the basic fundamentals at Datacentrix
are still in tact and we believe there is considerable upside for longer term investors, given
our DCF valuation. We believe any further drops would represent excellent buying opportunities for
the longer term.
Thursday 22 September 2005
EOH annual results - a solid performance, more upside, buy
Last night, we attended the analyst presentation for EOH's annual results to July 2005.
It was an impressive performance from the mid-range IT Services company. Revenue was up 40%
to ZAR 420 mln. As promised by management a year ago, the EBITA margin improved to 9.7%
from 8.1% last year. Although profit before tax was up a huge 57% to ZAR 36.5mln, HEPS was up
26% to 54 cents per share, impacted by a return to a more normal tax rate and higher shares
in issue. A dividend of 11.5 cents was declared. The results were better than our forecast we made
at the interim stage.
Although revenue was assisted by the acquisition of GBI (a business intelligence company) and the
merger with M-IT, (the outsourcing company and BEE partner), we estimate organic growth must
have been healthy too, in the 15-20% range.
Key to the results was the improvement in margins. They were lower a year ago, from what
management previously explained to be extra costs from integrating the Atos KPMG acquisition.
All has obviously gone well and the situation has reversed better than we expected.
EOH's core strategy has remained unchanged. The company seeks to become a "partner for life"
with its clients through its consulting, technology and outsourcing offerings. The group now has
900 staff and around 28 business units, many of which are separately branded. CEO Asher
Bohbot believes the group has to be big to survive. In our opinion, it will be challenging to
manage the complexity while growing and to unify EOH's branding across the group.
EOH's revenue composition is enviable. Around 55% is annuity based. From a product/service
split perspective, 87% comes from services and only 13% from the sale of software.
Management cited favourable global and local IT services macro fundamentals, which we would agree
with. More specifically, they were bullish on the potential IT needs from government and
the growth from adding value to existing ERP implementations in large corporates.
Cash flows from operations were a solid ZAR 45 mln, albeit helped by reductions in working capital
of around ZAR 12 mln. The balance sheet is strong but under-geared with ZAR 6.4 mln of debt and
ZAR 69 mln of cash. We calculate a high return on equity of 27%.
For the year to July 2006, we forecast 19% HEPS growth to 64 cents per share. It is based
on 17% revenue growth and further improvement in the EBITA margin to 10.3%, which we believe is
achievable from further synergies and efficiencies between the group's many business units. It is
tainted somewhat by a 9% increase in the weighted average shares to just under 55 mln.
Given yesterday's close of 495 cents, our forecast puts EOH on a forward PE of 7.7 which is
attractive. Their fairly conservative historic dividend cover of 4 times would give a forward
dividend yield of 3.3%, which is respectable.
Our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of 593 cents.
We taper revenue growth down to 10% and believe that margins can be held fairly constant. The
reason for this is EOH's high services component. Although there are challenges in managing a
people business, the sale of intellectual capital usually carries higher margins, which are more
easily protected. We assume a normal tax situation and working capital requirements of 1.5% of
sales. We use a 6% terminal growth rate and a WACC of 16%. We use 67.8 mln shares in our
calculation, which includes the 8 mln shares for the M-IT merger and the 9.18 mln shares earmarked
for the staff trust.
EOH is a solid company with a near-perfect 7-year track record. We like the management team.
Given its relatively smaller size, we believe the company has ample growth opportunities. With
its high services component, margins should be defendable in the longer term. EOH is one of our
top picks for 2005 and its shares have risen 18% since the beginning of the year. By our
calculations, the forward PE is still attractive and there is 20% upside to our DCF valuation.
We continue to recommend the shares to investors at current levels.
Tuesday 20 September 2005
ERP.com results & mgmnt meeting - IT Security rocks on
Yesterday, ERP.com released its results for the year to July 2005. We met with co-founder and
recently appointed CEO, Dean Brazier and CFO, Andreas Ritzlmayr.
Overall, it was a good set of results. Revenue was up a healthy 29% to ZAR 172 mln. As
expected, the group EBIT margin declined to 20.8% from 23% last year. HEPS was up only
9% to 15.5 cents per share, impacted by lower interest earned and higher tax. Dividends of
8 cents were declared.
Operationally, we were spot on with our revenue and EBIT forecasts we made in Dec 04.
However, HEPS came in 1 cent lower than we expected.
The star performer in the group was SecureData, a leading IT Security company. It
contributed 53% of group revenue and around 80% of group operating profit. Revenue grew
spectacularly by 36% to ZAR 91 mln. Management cited an increased performance with Trend
Micro (for which it is the exclusive distributor in sub-Saharan Africa), good contract wins in
the intrusion prevention system space with Tipping Point and a healthy take up of tokens from
RSA Security. Management also commented on the success of a re-focused and improved sales drive.
Operating profit margins were not disclosed for each division. We will have to wait for the
Annual Report for this. However management did confirm that the EBIT margin in SecureData
remained largely unchanged. It was 31.5% last year. This is a very good sign.
The Enterprise Applications division was the laggard in these results. Its revenue
declined 6% to ZAR 41 mln. It was impacted by the focus on SAP only and more so, by the
late start on the large SAP project with the PG Group. Management said margins were down here.
The Data and Content Management division put in a good performance with revenue up 82%
to ZAR 39.6 mln, largely a function of SBi, its content management business, performing well and
being included for the full year.
Cash flows from operations were ZAR 7.3 mln, down from last year mainly as a result of higher
cash taxes and dividends paid. The group's balance sheet remains strong (albeit undergeared)
with no debt and a ZAR 70 mln cash pile.
We are comfortable with newly appointed CEO, Dean Brazier. His hands-on approach has definitely
paid off at SecureData which he has led in the past. He is keen to make carefully selected acquisitions
to fill some gaps in ERP.com's offering.
Going forward, for the year to July 2006, we forecast HEPS growth of 19% to 18.5 cents per share.
It is based on 21% revenue growth and a further decline in the EBIT margin to 20%. At yesterday's close
of 155 cents, our forecast puts ERP.com on an undemanding forward PE of 8.4 times. Although this year's
ordinary dividend was topped up with a special dividend to reach a total of 8 cents, management's
policy is to maintain a minimum of 30% of HEPS, which yields a healthy forward dividend yield
of 3.6%.
For us, the key determinant of ERP.com's valuation is the sustainability of its profit margin, which
is currently more than double most IT firms. This can be attributed to the high margin in the
IT Security business, which is a result of exclusive product distributorships on obviously favourable terms.
We are of the opinion, that margins in this business will stay "stronger for longer". The
current results show no deterioration. As long as the business performs well for its international
principals, we feel margins should remain above average. Nevertheless, to be prudent we have
tapered margins down. On a group basis, we have them declining from 20% in 2006 to 16% in five
years time.
Our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation has remained largely unchanged at 205 cents.
Coupled with the margin decline mentioned above, we have revenue growth tapering down to 13%.
Working capital requirements are around 1.5% of sales. We use a terminal growth rate of 6% and a
WACC of 17%.
ERP.com is a good company with solid fundamentals and a great 5-year track record. We like its
exposure to the IT Security segment, which we believe will yield above average growth and profit
margins for some time. We believe there is good upside and would recommend buying the shares at
current levels.
ISA interims - on track for a good full year
ISA, the AltX listed IT Security company, released its interim results for the 6 months to
August 2005 yesterday. We have discussed them with management.
The results were solid and are in line with our forecasts for their full year to February 2006.
Revenue was up 25% to ZAR 18.3 mln with the EBIT margin a healthy 15.2%. A HEPS
of 2.6 cents was reported.
CEO Clifford Katz mentioned that the last 6 months were much of the same as before, with
the company tracking growth in the IT Security space. He felt there was large pent up demand for
IT Security in government, which is driving the need for ISA to conclude a successful BEE deal.
Negotiations are currently underway.
Revenue from the rest of Africa (and principally Nigeria) remained constant at around 10% of
group sales. While there were no major deals concluded, management said that more sustainable
smaller contracts were coming through.
We will stick with our HEPS forecast for the full year of 5.8 cents. At yesterday's close
of 46 cents, it puts ISA on a forward PE of 8 times, which is undemanding. We will also
stick with our previous DCF valuation of 59 cents.
As such, we re-iterate our recommendation of ISA shares to the more speculative investor.
Wednesday 14 September 2005
Faritec annual results - proof of turnaround
We attended Faritec's results presentation yesterday for the year to June 2005 at their offices
in Woodmead.
Overall, we felt the results were reassuring. Faritec is definitely moving in the right
direction. It has become profitable and is generating more of its revenue from higher margin
software and services business. Revenue was up 32% to ZAR 434 mln and the EBIT margin
(before exceptionals) came in at 1%. HEPS of 2.6 cents was reported. A ROE of 7% was achieved.
Its core business is still the sale of high-end IBM hardware with around ZAR 259 mln of
revenue. It made up 60% of the group turnover and performed well, with revenue growth of 22%.
Although the overall infrastructure market in SA is growing at only 7%, CEO Simon Tomlinson feels
that IBM are getting things right. He cites good progress in the "on demand computing" and
storage spaces. Faritec is arguably the most respected "IBM player" in South Africa. It commands
around 70% of the high-end UNIX based p-Series market. Going forward, Faritec may bolster its
hardware segment with more focus on the lower end Intel based servers. For this, they may select
another vendor, such as HP, which is more successful than IBM in the lower end. While profits
are not disclosed segmentally, management said that gross profit margins here were between 15 and
20%.
The services segment, an area where Faritec has strategically focused for the past two
years or so, did very well with revenue up 27% to ZAR 136 mln. This mainly includes integration
and IT Security related services. Around ZAR 30 mln came from IT Security services, some of which is
consulting and the rest is Managed IT Security Services, delivered from the new Security
Operations Centre. The SOC did well with many new clients added during the year. Management said
that gross margins in the services segment were between 30 and 40%.
The software segment also did well, with revenue more than tripling to around ZAR 38 mln.
It includes the sale of IT Security (Symantec) and IBM related software. Around ZAR 30 mln of
software sales was from IT Security. Management said that gross margins here were above 25%.
This year saw a reassuring turnaround in cash flows. Operating cash flows were a positive
ZAR 23 mln. This is a good sign. The group's balance sheet is healthier than last year. There is
ZAR 19 mln of cash on hand and we calculate ZAR 2 mln of interest bearing debt.
In our opinion, much of Faritec's success in the coming years is going to depend on the extent
of margin expansion. We feel its going to be driven by two key things. First, how much
contribution from the higher margin SW & Services segments and second, how well gross margins in
each segment can be sustained.
For the coming year to June 2006, we forecast HEPS growth of 132% to 6.1 cents. This is
based on a 21% turnover growth to ZAR 526 mln and a more than doubling of the EBIT margin to 2.2%.
We have SW & Services contributing 43% of turnover (up from 40% in 2005) and we estimate only a
slight decay of gross margins. We assume a 29% tax rate and a 4% increase in the weighted average
shares in issue.
At yesterday's close of 60 cents, our forecast puts Faritec on a forward PE of 10 times,
which we believe is a little rich. We do not expect a dividend in the coming year.
Looking further into the future, our discounted free cash flow valuation for Faritec is very sensitive
to the forecasted profit margins. We forecast the EBIT margin steadily improving from 2.2% in
2006 to 4.2% in five years time.
Its worth explaining how we get to this. Firstly, on gross margin sustainability, to be prudent, we forecast
more declines in the hardware and software segments, where Faritec sells other vendors' products.
We bring these gross margins down to the low end of management's range over 5 years (i.e. 15% for hardware
and 25% for software). The services segment should maintain its margin better, since Faritec is
more in control here. We forecast declines in the services gross margin to 35%. We are
comfortable with our revenue forecasts for the various segments, which show SW & Services contributing 50%
of revenue only in year 5. The salary bill currently makes up around 80% of operating expenses.
We have factored in generous salary bill increases as more staff are hired for the services
segment. We grow the remaining opex by 5% per annum.
Our discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of 69 cents per share.
We assume a standard tax rate, working capital requirements of 1.5% of sales, a terminal growth
rate of 6% and a WACC of 17%. We do account for minorities (40% of the ICP business).
To illustrate how sensitive our valuation is to margins, if we assume our current gross margin
estimates can be maintained, the valuation increases to 143 cents! Likewise, a significant drop
in valuation if margins decline further than we anticipate.
Faritec has undoubtedly turned itself around and management should be commended for persevering
through the troubled times of the past. The future definitely looks brighter and we are confident
that the group will improve its results going forward. Having said this, we do believe that the
share is currently fairly valued given our estimates and valuation. We would be holders for now.
Monday 12 September 2005
Pinnacle results and mgmnt meeting - still undervalued - buy
We met with Pinnacle CEO, Arnold Fourie and Group Financial Manager, Hano Coetzee on
Friday to discuss the results for the year to June 2005.
All-round, it was a solid performance, with healthy top line growth and an improvement in profit
margins. Group revenue was up 44% to ZAR 715 mln, boosted by the proportional
consolidation of now 50%-owned Explix, the software distribution business. Organic growth was
9.4%. Most pleasing was the improvement in the group EBITDA margin to 5.8% from 4.8% last
year, on target with management's goal a year ago. HEPS was up 71% to 15.1 cents per
share. We calculate a ROE of 21%.
Pinnacle's core business, its PC assembly and component distribution segment, performed well.
Management confirmed unit growth of around 20-30% across various categories. They felt
that their unit growth was in line with the overall market growth and believed their market
share of 7-8% remained constant. Revenue was up 10% to ZAR 520 mln, impacted by the ZAR/USD
strength of around 10% for the period. Arnold Fourie felt that price deflation had bottomed and
explained that the overall price of a PC system was expected to be fairly constant. (As component
prices drop in dollar terms, they get replaced by newer, more sophisticated and expensive components.)
Management cited an improvement in government business, which is expected to continue next year.
Pinnacle re-entered the retail market in Oct 2004, aligning itself with the JD Group. Its Proline
branded PC's and entertainment products are being sold at many of the JD Group chain stores, such
as Hi-Fi Corporation, Bradlows, Morkels and Russells. Retail sales made up less than 10% of this
segment, but its still early days. Although the retail channel is at lower margins, management felt
that the extended "footprint" and visibility should do well for the Proline brand. We agree.
Most pleasing was the improvement in the EBITDA margin of the core business to 6.5% from
5.3% last year. Management ascribe this to a better mix of higher margin product, which increased
gross margins - together with careful cost management, which kept operating costs under control.
Pinnacle's software and storage segment now includes 50% of the results from Explix/WorkGroup,
one of South Africa's leading software distributors. The segment reported revenue of ZAR 189 mln
and an EBITDA margin of 4.3%. We estimate its revenue growth for the year at 10%.
Pinnacle displayed tight working capital management, with both inventory and debtors at around
40 days. Cash flows were strong and the group's balance sheet is healthy. There is ZAR 62 mln
of cash on hand and ZAR 16 mln of debt.
Going forward, management would like to capture more market share in the core PC-related business.
As a result, margins may come down slightly in that segment. Given Pinnacle's relatively small
market share, we believe this can be achieved. Management also felt that margins in the Software
and Storage segment could be improved.
For the year to June 2006, we forecast 32% growth in HEPS to 20 cents per share. This is
based on 20% turnover growth to ZAR 862 mln and an EBITDA margin of 5.7%. Turnover growth is
assisted by our forecast of a 3% weaker ZAR/USD to June 2006. We also use around 4% lower
weighted average shares in issue (from the buy backs during the 2005 year.)
Friday's close of 128 cents puts Pinnacle on a forward PE of 6.4, which we believe is
attractive. If the current dividend payout rate can be maintained, we derive a healthy
forward dividend yield of 4%.
Our 8-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of 181 cents. We
have been conservative, tapering revenue growth down to 10%, EBIT margins down to 4.8% and
accounting for cash consumption from working capital of around 1.5% of sales. Our terminal
growth rate is 6% and we use a WACC of 16%. We have accounted for the minorities in RentNet
(40%) and Pinnacle Micro Cape (35%).
Pinnacle is one of our top picks for 2005. Its shares have more than doubled since the beginning
of the year from 50 to 128 cents. Despite the rise in the share price, we continue to believe
that the share is considerably undervalued. We believe that the fundamental drivers of
Pinnacle's industry are healthy. We also believe that management are capable of growing the
business from its current position while keeping costs under control. At current levels, we
continue to recommend Pinnacle shares to investors.
Friday 9 September 2005
Pinnacle annual results are out
Pinnacle released its results for the year to June 2005 late yesterday. We have taken a look,
but have not yet met or discussed them with management.
They look extremely good. Revenue up 44%, operating margin (EBIT) up to 5.3% (which was management's
aim previously) and HEPS growth of 70%. Looks like good news all round. We will write a more
detailed note after we have been in contact with management and done further analysis.
Datacentrix update - bad news
Also late yesterday, Datacentrix surprised us with news that headline earnings per share would
be 35% to 45% lower than the corresponding interim period last year. This is bad news. We will
have to wait for the results presentation on the 27th September to assess further.
Prism technology to be used by MTN in South Africa
Yesterday, MTN announced that it was launching a prepaid airtime vending solution in South Africa,
whereby prepaid users could buy airtime directly from "airtime vendors". They said it could create
as many as 11,000 new jobs.
We have confirmed with Prism management that the technology being used is in fact theirs.
This is great news for Prism since it will become a good reference site.
We must point out that the continual transition toward electronic delivery platforms for mobile
airtime is negative for the prepaid "scratch card" manufacturers.
Thursday 8 September 2005
Digicore annual results - economies of scale!
We attended Digicore's presentation to analysts yesterday for the year ended June 2005. Digicore
is a leading manufacturer of vehicle tracking units for use in fleet management and stolen
vehicle recovery applications.
In our opinion, the performance was excellent. Revenue up 31% to ZAR 253 mln, EBITDA
margins up massively to 25.5% (from 17.8% last year) and HEPS up 73% to 21 cents per
share.
The underlying fundamentals in Digicore's industry are strong. With the high oil and
petrol prices, fleet owners are increasingly focusing on efficiencies to cut fuel costs. Locally,
vehicle sales are also at all time highs, which bodes well for Digicore's stolen vehicle recovery
related business. In our opinion, these drivers will remain strong for the coming year.
Unpacking the performance, the 31% revenue growth was driven largely by 52% unit sales growth.
We estimate total units of 30,400 (from 20,000 last year). The average price per unit sale must
have declined (using their applicable unit sales portion of revenue), but its difficult to read
too much into this since the overall mix of unit types has obviously changed. Nevertheless, the
performance was strong, both locally and offshore.
Around 36% of group revenue or ZAR 90 mln was earned from offshore, mainly in various
European countries and the UK. Some of the other ventures into Africa and Brazil for example
have not taken off, and Digicore has decided to focus more heavily on those markets where they
are succeeding. Locally, management claimed that their market share in fleet management remained
constant at around 70%. The stolen vehicle recovery area has grown well with the Tracker
relationship, however Digicore intends launching its own products shortly. We learnt that the
existing Debis/Telkom contract contributes around 15% of revenue and is up for renewal in April
2008.
Most impressive was the improvement in EBITDA margin, which came from economies of scale.
Management explained that they could double the production of units in the future, with only a
20% increase in costs. So we expect (and management did confirm) that provided unit sales increase,
margins will increase further.
Cash flows from operations were down quite heavily to ZAR 7.6 mln from last year's ZAR 31 mln.
Although this was impacted by the payment of large dividends, we calculate that around ZAR 37
mln was absorbed by working capital. Management are addressing this problem and expect to reverse
the situation in the coming 6 months. In any event, the balance sheet is still strong with around
ZAR 25 mln of interest bearing debt and ZAR 49 mln of cash on hand.
It was interesting to learn that Digicore's entire staff complement are incentivised on any
profit growth above 25%. Morale is said to be high.
Going forward, for the year to June 2006, we forecast HEPS growth of 26% to 26.7 cents per
share. This is based on 23% revenue growth and a further increase in EBITDA margins to
27.5%.
In our revenue forecast we have analysed and forecasted each of Digicore's main revenue portions
separately. We forecast unit sales revenue growth of 32% based on 31% unit growth. We estimate
cellular revenue will decline by 5%. Although the number of units in the field will increase,
the transition from SMS to GPRS (which is much cheaper) as the main carrier of information should
impact this area negatively. We expect services/annuity to grow by 37%, largely driven by the
unit sales. Our margin projection is based on total costs increasing by 18% for the year.
Our HEPS forecast puts Digicore on a forward PE of 8.5, which is undemanding. If management
are able to achieve a 3 times cover, we forecast a dividend of 8.9 cents next year, which
implies a respectable forward dividend yield of 4%.
Our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of 297 cents
per share. We have been fairly conservative in our assumptions. We taper revenue growth
down to 10% and bring down EBIT margins to 23%. We use a 6% terminal growth rate and a WACC of
16%.
Digicore was one of our top picks for the year and has risen sharply year to date by 56% from
145 to 226 cents. The company has solid fundamentals and a good track record. The industry
drivers remain strong. Its intellectual property and success thereof should protect its margins
for some time. We also expect further benefits from economies of scale. The valuation still
looks attractive, given our growth expectations. We believe there is further upside and
continue recommend Digicore to investors at current levels.
Wednesday 7 September 2005
Venfin annual results - what's the value of Vodacom?
Last night, we attended Investment holding company, Venfin's annual results presentation for the
year to June 2005 in Sandhurst.
The group has done very well with almost all of its existing investments, but because of its 15%
stake in Vodacom, the smaller ones don't contribute meaningfully yet. Its net asset value is
currently dominated by the 15% stake in Vodacom, a 25% stake in Alexander Forbes, the Dimension
Data bond (USD 100 mln) and around ZAR 2.7 bln of cash, 72% of which is in Euros at the moment.
The group has not changed its core investment strategy, but will perhaps become a little more aggressive
in the future. Given the nature of their portfolio and its size, it is difficult to find
meaningful contributors. For example, even if Venfin invests in 10 small companies (say less
than ZAR 50 mln) that triple in value over say a year or two, this would not make a huge impact
on the overall value.
Venfin gave us a glimpse into Vodacom's performance for the 3 months to June 2005.
We already knew that their subscribers grew to 17.2 mln, but we were pleasantly surprised to see
that for the 3 month period, Vodacom's EBITDA was up 39% year on year, operating profit was up
54% and headline earnings up 38%. This is a very strong performance. We suspect that some of
this came from a stronger performance in Vodacom's "rest of Africa" operations.
In our opinion, the key issue in valuing Venfin is the valuation of Vodacom. Venfin
directors currently value Vodacom at ZAR 81.9 bln. Our value is considerably lower at ZAR 55
bln. Venfin do point out that their 15% stake carries 33% voting rights, which we have not
factored in, but then one could argue that because Vodacom is currently unlisted and this is
not a controlling stake, it should carry a discount. Nevertheless, we do respect that Venfin is
close to the action at Vodacom and get better insight into the company. Their valuation includes
existing Vodacom operations only.
If we use management's valuation of all their assets EXCEPT Vodacom and we substitute our
Vodacom valuation with theirs, we derive a NAV per share for Venfin of 3456c. At
yesterday's close of 3244c, it trades at a 6% discount to our valuation.
Interestingly, using the same logic as above, the current share price implies that the market is
roughly valuing Vodacom at ZAR 49 bln.
At current levels, we believe Venfin is fairly valued. We would recommend holding the shares.
Tuesday 6 September 2005
ABN Amro's mega global IT outsourcing deal
Last week, Dutch bank ABN Amro announced a global IT outsourcing deal worth USD 2.2 bln over 5 years. Interestingly,
this is about 10 times the size of the local Old Mutual/Nedbank outsourcing deal we saw last
month.
ABN Amro expects the deal to generate USD 315 mln per year of savings from 2007. They will cut
1500 staff and place 2000 other staff with the various outsourcing companies.
IBM Global Services is the major beneficiary with around USD 1.8 bln of the deal and will
manage the bank's technology infrastructure. Another beneficiary is India's Tata Consultancy
Services with around USD 244 mln of the deal, which will handle software development and
other related services. Tata claims that it was the largest deal ever won by an Indian IT
services company.
For us, the deal is interesting from a few angles. First, IT Outsourcing would appear to be
healthy, at least on the global front. Major corporates are clearly expecting huge savings from such
deals. This can only bode well for our local IT Outsourcers, e.g. BCX and GijimaAst. Second,
IBM's drive into the services space appears to be doing well. Remember that IBM has a large and
well respected services operation here in South Africa too. And lastly, it must be encouraging
for local IT group, Faritec to know that one of its Indian alliances (Tata Consultancy) has
been so successful internationally. Perhaps some of this success can be "routed" into the local
market.
Friday 2 September 2005
Mustek annual results - a flat SA PC market?
Dominant local PC assembler and component distributor, Mustek, released results for the year to
June 2005 yesterday. We have discussed them with management.
On the surface, it looks to be a decent set of results with revenue up 10% to ZAR 2.9 bln
and HEPS up 26% to 90 cents per share. However, the results were a little shy of our
original expectations at the half year.
We believe this can be attributed to a slower South African performance than we expected.Mustek's
core operations are in South Africa, namely PC assembler Mecer and component distributor
Rectron.
Management confirmed that unit sales at Mecer SA were flat at around 180k PC's. Although not
disclosed separately, we calculate that its revenues were down around 7.1%, roughly in-line with
the 10% strengthening of the ZAR to the dollar. Management believe that the overall PC market in
SA was flat too, implying that market share was maintained. We find this difficult to understand,
given the strong growth in SA PC unit sales in 2004, the relatively stronger Rand (with lower
prices) and the overall buoyant economy. In a similar fashion we calculate that Rectron SA's
revenues declined by around 2.9%. Nevertheless, management are confident of better growth prospects
in the year ahead on the back of government sales and corporate projects. For example, the tie
up with Telkom for its bundled ADSL offer and involvement with Vodacom in its community centres.
The sluggish revenue in SA was more than made up by Mustek's offshore operations (Mecer
in Brazil and East Africa and Rectron in Australia and the UK.) While not material last year, these
operations were disclosed segmentally this period. Together, the offshore operations contributed around
ZAR 278 mln or 9% of group revenue. However, their profit margins are lower. We estimate an
average GP margin of 5% (compared to the South African operations, which we estimate at 17-18%.)
Prospects appear to be bright offshore. The Brazilian PC market is huge and a problem situation
in the UK is being remedied.
As usual, Mustek's cash flows were solid and the balance sheet remains healthy. We calculate
ZAR 327 mln of interest bearing debt. There is 398 mln of cash on hand. Management are
comfortable with the current capital structure.
Going forward, for the year to June 2006, we forecast a 13% growth in HEPS to 102 cents per
share. We predict a return to growth for the South African operations with slight margin pressure and
continued good growth offshore. Overall, we forecast revenues of ZAR 3.21 bln with a small
decline in the gross profit margin to 15.9%. We have not factored in potential dilution from
Mustek's BEE deal with Safika, but have accounted for another 3 mln shares from options.
At yesterday's close of 1050, our forecast puts Mustek on a forward PE of 10.3 times, which is
fair. We believe the group can equal or better this year's dividend of 60 cents, which puts
Mustek on a forward dividend yield of around 6.5%. This is very attractive!
Our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value per share of
1182 cents. We have been fairly conservative in our forecasts with modest EBIT growth of
under 10% on average. We also return to more normal tax levels over the next 2 years. We use a
terminal growth rate of 7% and a WACC of 13%. We do account for the minorities in Rectron (35%)
and Brother (30%).
While Mustek is currently trading at levels closer to our fair value than before, we do believe
there is still upside. Combined with the very high dividend yield and the quality of the
company, we continue to recommend the shares to investors.
Thursday 1 September 2005
Altech/Econet speedy conclusion is good news
The resolution of the Altech/Econet "divorce" was announced yesterday. The Econet side will be
buying back their share in the joint venture for USD 87.5 mln.
The speed in which resolution was reached is good news in our opinion. It could have dragged on
for many months in drawn out court battles. Also, the price agreed on has effectively yielded a
25% return for Altech in less than a year on the original USD 70 mln. This is higher than
the 20% return on equity Altech achieved for the year to Feb 2005.
Originally, we were disappointed that the relationship broke down since we felt that the joint
venture was important for Altech's longer term growth plans. We still maintain this view. Time
will tell how Altech "re-enters" the mobile space in Africa, if at all.
Wednesday 31 August 2005
GijimaAst annual results - light at the end of the tunnel
We attended the annual results presentation to June 2005 at the company's offices in Midrand yesterday.
All-round, GijimaAst has come a long way to redeem itself from the difficult situation it was in
over the past two years or so and has posted what we believe are a reassuring set of results.
Obviously good news for the company, but also for its many "blue-chip" clients and the sector as
a whole.
Group revenue was down a disappointing 8% to ZAR 1.6 bln. Delving deeper, we learnt that
GijimaAst's core managed services division (mainly longer term contracts for IT
outsourcing) did well and grew revenues 5% to ZAR 1 bln.
It was the Solutions division which suffered with a large 24% decline in revenue to ZAR
570 mln. According to management, there were a couple of reasons for this. Owing to its project-based
nature, it did not fair well during the troubled times of the past where several clients did not
award business, since they doubted AST's survival. We can understand this. Also, there were
cancellations of various large ERP projects and the company was not invited to participate in
others. Management are confident that with the renewed strength in the group, they will be able
to claw back their position in this area. We would concur.
On a positive note, the group EBITDA margin has increased to a more healthy 7.4% from
5.8% last year. If one strips out the 2 month contribution from Gijima, we calculate that the
"old AST" business had an EBITDA margin of 7.2%. This is still some way from management's original
aim of the 10% level, but nevertheless, an improvement.
The group is cash generative and the restructuring of late has put the balance sheet
into a healthier position than before. There is ZAR 98 mln of cash on hand and we calculate
around ZAR 147 mln of interest bearing debt.
Going forward to June 2006, we forecast HEPS of 7.1 cents per share. This is based on
revenues of ZAR 2 bln (Gijima has to be included for a full year and we use conservative growth
assumptions). We anticipate a small increase in the EBITDA margin to 8.5%, mainly a result of
some revenue growth returning to the Solutions division. There are some other issues (such as the
effective tax rate) which are difficult to forecast accurately. We have however erred on the
side of caution and would not be surprised if HEPS came in as high as 8 cents per share.
In any event, on yesterday's close price of 61 cents, we derive a forward PE of 8.6 times,
which seems fair.
Our 5-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value of 62 cents per share.
We assume stable conditions from here on in terms of top line growth and margins. We also assume
a gradual return to a more normal tax situation. We use a terminal growth rate of 6% and a
WACC of 14.5%.
To conclude, we believe GijimaAst has emerged a much healthier business than before, which should
help restore its competitive position in the market. There is definitely light at the end of the
tunnel. We believe that at current levels of 61 cents, GijimaAst shares are fairly valued.
We would be holders.
Tuesday 23 August 2005
Compu-Clearing - fair results but overvalued - sell
Compu-Clearing released annual results yesterday for the year to June 2005. We spoke
with management.
Overall, we believe it was a fair yet uninspiring set of results. Revenue was up 6% to
ZAR 37.5 mln. Operating profit margins, while still very healthy, were down slightly
at 21.5%. HEPS came in 3% lower at 15.6 cents per share. A dividend of 10 cents per
share was declared.
Compu-Clearing is the dominant IT player in the South African customs clearing and freight
forwarding space with around 70% market share. According to management, their South African
position remained stable during the past year.
On the international front, the group has tried for the past two years to make inroads into the
US market. However, this has gone far slower than we expected. The group only has two clients
in the US, generating very small revenue and a small operating loss. Management explained that
while prospects continue to look upbeat, they will proceed with caution. As a result, we do not
expect the US to contribute materially to the group for the next two years.
That said, the group continues to be a strong cash generator. Its balance sheet is
healthy with no debt and around ZAR 17 mln of cash on hand.
Going forward, for the year to June 2006, we forecast HEPS growth of 9% to 17.1 cents
per share. This is based on a continuation of the stable South African business, less losses
from the offshore operations and lower STC charges.
At the current share price of 379 cents, Compu-Clearing is on a forward PE of 22 times, which
we believe is grossly overvalued given the growth prospects.
Furthermore, our 6-year discounted free cash flow valuation yields a present value per
share of 166 cents. We assume a stable South African situation with slightly deteriorating
margins and improved international operations in the later years. Our WACC is 17% (all equity)
and our terminal growth rate is 6%.
While we do not doubt that Compu-Clearing is an excellent cash generative company with a
competitive niche position, its share price has moved to levels which we do not believe is justified
by the underlying fundamentals. We recommend that investors sell at current levels.
Thursday 18 August 2005
Prism annual results - a good dollar performance
We attended the analyst presentation yesterday at their offices in Fourways for the year to
June 2005.
On balance, it was a good set of results in dollar terms, tainted somewhat by the stronger
Rand. Group revenue was up 14.4% to ZAR 301 mln. Profit margins increased slightly
to 14.8% and headline earnings grew 11%. HEPS was up 22% to 5.6 cents, boosted by a
reduction in the number of shares from share buybacks.
Prism's largest division principally provides SIM cards for mobile phones. However, Prism focuses
mainly on the provision of the software which goes on the SIM card's smart chip, for which it
gets a license fee. Clients are mainly in China, the Philippines and South Africa (MTN and
Vodacom) and business is conducted in US dollar terms. This division makes up around half of
Prism's group turnover. In dollars, it performed well for the year, increasing sales
48% to USD 25mln. However, this area is plagued with price deflation owing to over
supply. According to management the average price of a SIM card has fallen to around USD 1.8 from
USD 5 in 2003. SIM card prices declined 17% in dollar terms this year. While Prism focuses on
the SIM software and manufactures relatively few cards, the overall pricing pressure does affect
their software license fee too which makes up around 15-20% of the card's retail price. In our
opinion, there is likely to be further pricing pressure in the year ahead.
When asked what differentiates Prism in this area, CEO Alvin Els explained that being smaller
and more flexible, Prism can better meet the needs of individual mobile operators with respect to
software required on their SIM cards.
Prism's other divisions had a mixed performance in revenue terms and are primarily Rand based.
Since the group does not disclose segmental profits, its difficult to assess the success of
each. Nevertheless group profit margins did increase. We are comfortable that Prism has enough
opportunities for growth in these areas, particularly with the EMV conversion in South Africa
and Prism's independent payment system, EasyPay.
Prism's cash flows were strong and its balance sheet is healthy. There is no debt and around
ZAR 63 mln of cash. A ROE of 21% for the year was achieved.
Going forward to June 2006, we believe a 25% HEPS growth to 7 cents per share is achievable.
It is likely that the year ahead will be assisted by a slightly weaker Rand. Also, there will be
further declines in the weighted average shares in issue. We have been fairly conservative in
our underlying operating assumptions. This puts Prism on a forward PE of 8.7 which is not
demanding. The group also declared its maiden dividend, which if maintained, would put Prism
on a healthy forward dividend yield of around 3 to 4%.
At current levels of 61 cents, we would recommend Prism to the more speculative investor.
Wednesday 17 August 2005
BCX annual results - the king of outsourcing
We attended the BCX analyst presentation yesterday in Sandton for the year to May 2005.
All-round, it was a consistent set of results with a pleasing improvement in profit margins. Group
revenue was flat at ZAR 2.8 bln. The operating profit margin improved to 6.4% from
4.5% last year. This is a very good sign. HEPS was up by 119% to 75 cents per share. A
ROE of 26% was achieved.
The South African business, which makes up over 90% of the group performed well, with
turnover growth of 9% and a large improvement in its EBIT margin to 7.4%. The group was let down
by its African and International operations, which led to the stagnant top line.
BCX's jewel is its outsourcing business. In essence, it provides a total IT outsourcing
solution to many of SA's largest corporates. In so doing, BCX's clients can focus on their core
business and leave the IT aches and pains to the experts. Through economies of scale, BCX is
able to make profits while at the same time saving money for its clients. BCX dominates this area
in SA and we have found they are highly respected by their peers in the industry.
The outsourcing business contributes around 65% of BCX's group revenue and around 85% of its
operating profit. This year, its revenue grew by 6% to ZAR 1.8 bln. While this is
lower than what we believe to be the growth rate of IT Outsourcing in SA (of around 10%), BCX's
size must be taken into account. EBIT margins improved to 9.6%. We believe the margins
have reached a steady state and should remain at this level over the next two years. Its a stable
business and margins tend to get "locked" in over long-term contracts.
Management indicated their intention to build additional data centres to the tune of around ZAR
150 mln and also prepare for a Voice over IP offering, which is being demanded from clients. This
is more of a defensive move to ward off smaller VoIP players from "entering" their outsourcing
clients.
BCX's balance sheet is healthy with around ZAR 240 mln of interest bearing debt and ZAR 776
mln of cash. Around ZAR 500 mln of this will be utilised in the year ahead for paying dividends,
building the data centres and for working capital. Cash flow from operations was a healthy ZAR
128 mln excluding a ZAR 159 mln payment to SARS for the trademark dispute settlement.
Most of the once-off financial anomalies in BCX's numbers are now out of the system. For the
coming year, we look forward to a "cleaner" set of financials. The group's tax should return to
normal and the impact from goodwill should be minimal.
Going forward, for the year to May 2006, we forecast a HEPS of 67 cents per share. This is
based on revenue growth of 7% and further margin improvement to 7,2%. Based on our HEPS
forecast and yesterday's close price of 571 cents, BCX trades on a forward PE of 8.5. If the
dividend policy can be maintained, we estimate the forward dividend yield at around 4%. For a
business of this size and quality, it looks attractive.
Our 7-year discounted free cash flow model yields a present value of 593 cents. We assume revenue growth
increases to a steady 9% and that EBIT margins increase steadily to 8.5%. We use a WACC of 15%
and a terminal growth rate of 7%. We must point out that the valuation is extremely sensitive to
the sustainable profit margin. BCX management is aiming for 10%. Using 10% instead of our
estimate of 8.5% increases the valuation to around 700 cents.
At current levels of 571 cents, we believe BCX is fairly valued. We would be holders on the
chance of margins improving better than expected and on the respectable dividend yield.
Thursday 11 August 2005
Econet briefing - what will the outcome be?
We attended the Econet analyst briefing yesterday at their offices in Sandton, where Econet CEO
Strive Masiyiwa explained the Altech/Econet break up from his point of view.
He explained that the main reasons for the breakup were alleged racism from an Altech
employee and differences regarding the future of the Nigerian mobile business.
For us the concern is what the financial and strategic outcome of all of this would be for
Altech.
We learnt that Strive is not at all interested in selling his stake of the partnership. He also
said he would not consider selling "pieces" of the business. So, it would appear that the likely
outcome is for Altech to sell its investment back to Econet. While Altech is trying to obtain
a court ruling on the price (of USD 100 mln), Strive is of the opinion that this price should be
negotiated. He feels that a court judge cannot rule on the valuation itself.
In our opinion, this is a negative blow for Altech. If they sell their stake, they will have to
find other mobile opportunities to fuel their longer term growth, which is not easy. Not to
mention the lost time in this transaction, while mobile telphony marches on in Africa.
MTN/Standard Bank mobile banking JV - a bank in your pocket
We attended MTN and Standard Bank's launch presentation yesterday regarding their new mobile
banking joint venture.
This is the first "true" convergence between mobile telephony and banking. Previous cellphone
based banking services have only been available to existing bank account holders, where the cell
phone was simply another channel to access your bank account. This is different in that any MTN
subscriber can now apply for a new bank account in minutes - from their cellphone.
The product is an MTN branded bank account that is accessed and used from a cell phone. The
registration process is simple and was successfully demonstrated at the presentation. The technology
used makes the "bank in your pocket" accessible by even the most basic mobile phones. (I.e. its
not a GPRS or broadband 3G application.) The MTN bank account has cost benefits for
customers since it has been designed with mobile access in mind. It will appeal to the masses.
In our opinion, this is an excellent move from MTN. While we think that the additional revenues
from the venture will be immaterial to the group over the next two years, it does bring numerous
benefits. First it will assist in retaining MTN subscribers, which is becoming
increasingly important in the maturing South African market. Second, it gives MTN first mover
advantage in this area and could be perceived over time as a vital value added service to
MTN subscribers. It will also boost data traffic and revenue slightly.
Its a 50/50 pan-African partnership in which Standard Bank and MTN have pooled their resources.
Management claim they have only spent ZAR 50 mln to date. They mentioned that their
breakeven point would be somewhere between 350,000 and 500,000 mobile bank accounts,
depending on transaction volumes through which they generate revenue.
Over and above the obvious trust advantage of having the Standard Bank name behind the whole
venture, MTN intends moving into other African markets, where Standard Bank has a presence. We
see there is overlap in Nigeria, Swaziland and Uganda.
In our opinion, the key advantage of the MTN bank account is accessibility and cost. We
think its going to do well, particularly in the lower end of the market. Time will tell how the
other mobile operators and banks will respond.
Friday 5 August 2005
Major Telkom deal win - the strong get stronger
Telkom yesterday announced it has won a USD 265 mln 5-year network outsourcing deal from Old
Mutual and Nedbank together with Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC). CSC is a global IT Services
giant with annual revenues of USD 14 bln and a NYSE market cap of around USD 9 bln. CSC has had
a long IT outsourcing relationship with Old Mutual since 1999.
The two companies will team up to provide converged network services and LAN support for Old Mutual
and Nedbank that will apparently save them hundreds of millions over the next five years.
In an international PR Newswire release, CSC estimates that its share of the deal is around USD
125 mln, which means that Telkom's share is around USD 140 mln. If spread evenly, this
translates to around USD 28 mln or ZAR 182 mln annually. This is around 3% of Telkom's 2005 data
revenues of ZAR 5.8 bln. So the deal is sizeable, but probably replaces some of Old Mutual and
Nedbank's current data/voice spend with Telkom, so the incremental revenue is probably much less.
In any event, this news tells us a few things. First, its great news for Telkom which is
obviously doing well to progress up the value chain from plain old telephony into fancy IT
Services and locking another customer in for a long period. It also tells us that despite the so
called deregulated environment, which should be weakening Telkom, its actually getting stronger.
This should be worrying for the pending SNO. Also, yesterday's news should be hurting
Didata and The Intenet Solution(IS), which undoubtedly have lost some business. It also
leaves IS in a strange position where two of its shareholders have opted to put their business
elsewhere. Maybe this opens up a possibility of a new shareholder?
But most importantly, the news yesterday simply highlights the lack of telecoms infrastructure
competition in South Africa. Old Mutual and Nedbank have opted to go directly to the source
(i.e. Telkom) which controls all the infrastructure in SA. They obviously could get it cheaper
from Telkom than any other company (such as IS), which has to use Telkom infrastructure anyway.
What we need in SA is true infrastructure competition or the threat of self provision to keep
Telkom in check. Failing this, if Telkom signs up a few more deals of this size and tenure,
there is very little hope of seeing true competition in SA's telecoms landscape.
Altech/Econet relationship breaks down
Altech announced yesterday that its relationship with Econet Wireless has broken down and that it
intends winding up its joint venture. At this stage the reasons are not very clear, but
Strive Masiyiwa (Econet's leader) said last night on the Moneyweb Power Hour that it was owing
to differences regarding the future of its stake in the Nigerian mobile operation and alleged
racism from an employee.
Whatever the reason, this is not good news for Altech. We have always felt that the
Econet joint venture cemented Altech's longer term growth.
While its unclear at this stage what the financial impacts of yesterday's development will be on
Altech, in our opinion, its not inconceivable for Altech to emerge acquiring stakes in certain
of Econet's mobile assets that it has become familiar with over the past year or so. So it may
not turn out to be as negative as it initially looks. Nevertheless, time will tell.
Wednesday 3 August 2005
Peter Forsyth steps down at ERP.com
ERP.com announced yesterday that co-founder and CEO, Peter Forsyth will be stepping down
at the end of August and will remain a non-executive director until October 2005. We spoke with
him yesterday about this development.
ERP.com is a relatively small but very successful IT company with operations in the areas of IT
Security, Enterprise Applications and Data & Content Management. Since listing in 1999, it has
shown compound annual growth in both sales and profit in excess of 30%, despite the IT meltdown
from 2000 onwards which saw many casualties in the sector. All credit must go to Peter Forsyth
who has led the company successfully since inception. We wish him well for the future.
According to Peter Forsyth, he believes that he is not the best man to lead the company into the
future. He will be taking a break for a while and won't be joining another IT company. He says he
will keep his 6% shareholding in ERP.com.
Dean Brazier, also a co-founder and who leads ERP.com's gem, its IT Security operation -
SecureData, will become CEO from September 2005. We have had numerous meetings with Dean
over the past 18 months and we believe that he is capable of leading the company successfully
going forward. He strikes us as a no-nonsense pragmatic leader with a focus on the bottom
line. With 21 years experience in the IT industry, his career has spanned positions at BankCorp
Data, Hogan in the UK and Oracle South Africa. A concern for us however is that if Dean becomes
CEO, who will head up SecureData?
Yesterday's announcement also included some guidance for the full year to July 2005. It says that
the group will show "at least" 20% revenue growth and 7% HEPS growth. This is somewhat
lower than our forecast of 27% revenue growth and 17% HEPS growth to 16.5 cents per share.
We will have to wait for the results in September to see whether its just some financial anomaly
or a decline in the traditionally high profit margins at ERP.com, which would be worrying.
Nevertheless, we believe our free cash flow valuation of 205 cents is still in tact at this
stage. With yesterday's sharp drop in the share price to 156 cents, we still believe the
share offers significant upside.
Thursday 28 July 2005
MTN conference call - the heat is on in Nigeria
We took part in yesterday's conference call regarding MTN's subscriber update for the quarter
ended June 2005. Although its a short 3 month period, which can contain seasonal factors and
once-off anomalies, it gives us an idea of progress.
In South Africa, the contract base performance was pleasing with only small ARPU declines.
Prepaid customers grew 5% for the quarter. However, of concern to us is the large drop in
prepaid ARPU by 9% to ZAR 88. Management did say that marginal ARPU (for new customers) was
in the late sixties. Overall in SA, MTN's total subscriber base grew by 5% in the quarter,
with ARPU declining by 8%.
To contrast this with Vodacom SA, we must compare apples with apples by using the same
definition of subscribers - namely those that have been active in the last 90 days. On a like for
like basis, Vodacom grew its South African subscriber base by 10% for the quarter with ARPU
declining 8%. Strangely, MTN claims they maintained their SA market share of 38-39%, despite
Vodacom having double the growth in subscribers! In any event, its clear who's the dominant
player in SA.
In Nigeria, growth continues to be strong. MTN's Nigerian subscriber base grew by 14.4% to
6.38 million. 805k subscribers were added - or a monthly run rate of 268k. Management do not see
it slowing down in the current year, implying a target of around 8 million subscribers by December 2005.
However, ARPU declined by a large 23% to USD 23. In addition to the usual effect from
penetrating deeper into the market, management said that tariffs had declined and that the market
had been extremely competitive in the past 3 months. When asked, we learnt that marginal ARPU was
in the region of USD 15-17. MTN claims a steady market share of 47%.
MTN's other four African operations all grew their subscribers by between 5 and 10% for the
quarter. However, ARPUs on a comparable basis declined more than subscriber growth in all
countries except Rwanda.
All round, things are progressing steadily for MTN. We see no reason to change our free cash
flow valuation of ZAR 52 per share.
Wednesday 27 July 2005
Vodacom quarterly subscribers - South Africa prepaid explosion
Vodacom has released its quarterly subscriber numbers for the 3 months to 30 June 2005.
While 3 months is a short period that can contain seasonal issues and other once-off anomalies,
it does give us a glimpse into the overall top line performance.
Vodacom South Africa, the group's largest contributor by far, continues to show impressive growth.
The surprise for us was in the prepaid area, where the base grew by over 1.3 mln or 11.3%
sequentially! We calculate the monthly net subscriber run rate at around 447,000, which is double
of what it has been over the last 18 months. As to be expected, Vodacom SA's overall ARPU
declined by 8% to ZAR 150.
Going forward, its quite easy to see how the South African business can achieve top line growth
for the year of 15 to 20%. The subscriber base grew by 11% this quarter, so its not unreasonable
to think that 25% can be achieved for the full year. Assuming that ARPU declines for the year
by 10% - then in simple terms, there you have your 15% top line growth.
In our opinion, the rest of Africa showed a varied performance. Total subscribers in
Vodacom's four other African operations grew by 10.7%, but ARPU declined by more than the
subscriber growth in three of the four countries. Of concern to us is the slowing growth in
the Congo and the trebling of the churn figure in Mozambique.
We look forward to MTN's quarterly subscriber numbers, out later today.
Digicore trading update - way above our expectations
Digicore announced yesterday that HEPS will be between 56% and 76% higher than the 12.2 cents
reported for the year to June 2004.
This is considerably higher than our original estimate of 30%. We did mention that the share
buyback would assist, but we suspect that the improved performance is operational.
Assuming a 65% growth on 12.2 cents, we can expect HEPS in the region of 20.1 cents. On a share
price of 174 cents, Digicore is on a PE of 8.6 times, which is undemanding.
At the results (which are expected to be released around 5 September), we will try to assess how
much of the growth was operational versus other financial effects and how much of it is
sustainable, going forward.
Digicore is one of our top picks for 2005. We still believe there is good upside in the
share and continue to recommend it to investors at current levels.
Monday 25 July 2005
Telkom tariff decreases - marginally negative on their valuation
Telkom has filed its tariff adjustments for September 2005. Pending ICASA approval, its good news
for consumers and bad news for Telkom.
While most tariffs will decline, the impact will be lessened somewhat by a 6% INCREASE in the
subscription fees (i.e. your monthly rental).
Local calls in peak times will go down by 5% which is great news for consumers. Long
distance calls will decrease further by 10% (both peak and off-peak). An average decline of
11% has been announced for all data tariffs. Unfortunately for consumers fixed to mobile and
international calls are unchanged.
We have modelled the impact of these proposed tariff changes on Telkom's fixed line revenue. All
else equal, we calculate the overall impact on revenue to be -2.6%.
The impact of this on Telkom's valuation is also negative, but marginal. We calculate a new DCF,
all else equal, of ZAR 124, which is only ZAR 2 down from our previous value of ZAR 126. We
continue to believe that at current levels of ZAR 122, Telkom offers little upside and would recommend
that investors take some profits.
Reunert site visit - good impression overall
We attended the two day Reunert site visit on Thursday and Friday last week. Reunert is a well
diversified electronics and electrical "giant", geared to the local economy. It houses many well
known operations such as Nashua, Panasonic, African cables and Siemens Telecoms.
The site visit was very well attended by both the buy and sell side. Overall, it left us with
a good impression of the company, its prospects and its management team.
In its consumer and commercial division, which is the distributor for Panasonic, it was
interesting to learn the extent of price deflation. Over the past year, the South African
consumer electronics industry grew unit sales by 17%, but the value of these sales declined 3%.
Despite this, the Reunert business has driven growth through efficiency gains. Also, a new brand
has been taken on (Futronic) for the lower end of the market. Our tour of the showrooms was impressive.
We were surprised at the breadth of product offerings from Panasonic.
Nashua Mobile continues to perform well. With around 11% of the contract cellular market
and over 400,000 subscribers, it is a stable cash cow. Management believe the threat of being
bought out by the mobile operators is very low, and say that relationships with the operators
have never been better. They are bullish on the growth of telemetry applications.
Nashua office automation continues to do well with growing profits and document volumes.
Current growth continues to be driven by conversion from black and white into colour. The company
has done well by subsidising the price of the hardware to "get in" to the customer, and then
recouping it from ongoing usage and consumables, much like the cellular industry. Its finance
arm is doing well too, earning an average interest spread of 4% on a book of around ZAR 1.4 bln.
Power cable manufacturer, African Cables is pumping. Its growth is being driven by
increased electrification and the improvement of the municipal power distribution network. Threats
continue to be the reduction in import tariffs and the reliability of copper supply.
Siemens Telecoms' performance has been erratic over the past few years with large projects
or the absence thereof impacting turnover and profitability. They seem to have remedied this
somewhat by focusing on efficiencies. With Vodacom, Cell C and some Southern African operators as
their key customers, a more stable future looks likely. The operation also has a new MD.
Friday 15 July 2005
Telecoms pricing colloquium - we need effective competition
We attended the Department of Communications' Telecoms pricing colloquium yesterday in Midrand.
It was an open invitation to all stakeholders in SA's Telecoms industry and was well attended.
Its aim was to discuss why telecoms prices are so high in South Africa and to brainstorm methods
of reducing them.
Firstly, in our opinion, credit needs to be given to the DoC for taking the initiative to
seek industry comment on the matter. We felt it was genuine and we were impressed with the opening
address from the deputy minister of communications.
The overriding message that came through from the various presenters and submissions from attendees
was that effective competition will eventually drive prices down. We agree.
In the fixed-line area, there was the usual "Telkom bashing" and skepticism about the SNO
being able to offer real competition. Telkom presented arguments as to why unbundling of the
local loop would not be an ideal solution as long as relatively low subscription charges
are subsidised by higher call rates. Interestingly, the deputy minister did reassure us that the
SNO would be licensed soon - "in a matter of weeks."
In the mobile sector, the concern was that despite competition, we have not seen prices
come down substantially. Taylor Reynolds, telecoms economist from the OECD, argued that the
advent of MVNO's internationally had resulted in effective price competition. Perhaps we
need a couple of MVNO's here in SA to shake up the cosy threesome.
All in all, we believe the colloquium itself, at this stage, has very little impact on the
investment merits of our major listed telco players - MTN, Telkom and Venfin. However, it
would appear that the policy makers are becoming more genuinely concerned about telecoms pricing
in SA. Whether this translates into action remains to be seen.
Wednesday 13 July 2005
FrontRange results - executing well thus far
We attended the analyst results presentation yesterday in Sandton for the 10 months to April.
It was a good set of results and in our opinion, the company is on track with its previously
stated strategy. Just to recap, FrontRange is a predominantly US-based software developer,
in the mid-range CRM and customer support space. It is currently revamping its product suite
using the latest technologies and is building additional products.
Turnover was up 12% to USD 66.7 mln, with a healthy 25% growth in software license sales.
Reassuringly, this was driven by the sales of new products that have been launched. The trading
profit (EBITA) margin came in at 6.5%. HEPS in dollar terms for the 10 months was
USD 4.3 cents, largely assisted by a deferred tax credit of around USD 3.2 mln. Our
previous HEPS forecast of USD 4.4 cents we made in December 2004 was spot on.
Cash flow from operations was a healthy USD 4.2 mln and the balance sheet remains in good shape
with no debt and around USD 24 mln of cash on hand.
Although its still early days, FrontRange's quarterly performance does demonstrate that the recently
appointed US-based CEO and his team are getting things right. The company believes that its
product set is now technologically more advanced than the bulk of its competitors and is very
optimistic about its future. While its difficult for us here in SA to verify these claims without
understanding their competitive environment intimately, we are of the opinion that the numbers
will tell the story in due course.
Nevertheless, we believe that FrontRange should be able to show above-average growth over the
next two years. For the year to April 2006, we forecast turnover of USD 92 mln, EBITA of
USD 8.7 mln and HEPS of USD 5.5 cents. At an assumed 6.7 ZAR/USD average exchange rate,
this translates to a forward PE of 14.5, using yesterday's close price of 535c. We
calculate a historic PE of 17, using a 12 month extrapolation from the recent results. Stripping
out cash and interest earned we calculate a historic "core PE" of 14 times.
The question is, what PE should this company trade on and isn't a 14.5 forward PE too high? In
our opinion, the short answer is that its not too high and is probably fair in a South African
context and low compared to its international peers. FrontRange is a software developer with its
own intellectual property and all else equal, it should be rewarded for this.
We have looked at some of FrontRange's international peers, mainly listed on NASDAQ. While
they are not ideal comparables, they fall in a similar category. Salesforce.com is on a
PE of 198. Siebel's PE is 57 despite its declining performance over the past three years.
BMC's PE is 56. LSE listed Sage is on a PE of 21.
Reverting to our more conservative 8-year free cash flow valuation, we derive a present
value of FrontRange shares of 575 cents. Our model assumes above-average growth over the
next two years, tapering off to 10% and then 7% into perpetuity. We forecast free cash flows in
dollars and convert to ZAR at a 5% depreciating ZAR per annum. We assume no tax for the next three
years owing to the company's assessed loss situation. We use a WACC of 17% - high since
there is no debt. Clearly, if the company gets its product strategy right, growth should be
well above our assumptions.
All in all, we believe that the current share price is sufficiently backed up by FrontRange's
existing fundamentals and our fairly conservative forecasts. There is even some upside. Should
the company get its product strategy right - the likelihood of which has been raised a notch or
two in our opinion - there should be considerable further upside. Coupled with a potential
NASDAQ listing in the future, we continue to recommend FrontRange at current levels to the
more speculative investor.
Friday 8 July 2005
Amazon leads the online retailer space 10 years on
Through the internet explosion in the early nineties, followed by the bubble and crash, Amazon
has weathered the storm and leads the global online retail space. Selling mainly books and
electronics, it reported sales of around USD 7 billion for the year to Dec 04. Jeff
Bezos' company will be ten years old on July 16th.
What we find impressive is that it has managed to grow sales by 30% annually over the past
three years. Even more impressive is its relatively respectable operating profit margin,
which was 6.4% last year. To give some yardstick of local comparison, consider the 5.6% profit
margin from the retail division of locally listed media group JohnCom (which includes
Exclusive Books and NuMetro). Also consider Incredible Connection's profit margin of
5.1% in its recent interims. Although these are far from ideal comparisons, they give us the
impression that Amazon is doing things right.
With around 49 million active customers, Amazon is proof that retail eCommerce is here to stay
and is growing in popularity, albeit still a minute fraction of total retail sales.
Interestingly, if you adjust for stock splits, Amazon's stock has grown from USD 1.5 eight
years ago to USD 34, which translates to an 8-yr compound annual growth of 48%! The
NASDAQ listed company has a market cap of USD 14 bln and is on a PE of 27.
MTN acquires 40% minority share of MTN Network Solutions
In our opinion, this is good news for MTN. It has acquired the 40% minority stake it did not
own in its Tier-1 ISP from JohnCom for an undisclosed sum. While the deal would not be material
to the MTN group from a numbers perspective, we do believe its a positive thing strategically.
With the convergence of voice, data and mobility, having your own ISP helps with the development
and launching of converged services. Although MTN did own 60% before, 100% gives them full
control and probably more flexibility, going forward.
Tuesday 5 July 2005
Performance of our top technology picks for 2005
A while back, we sent out our 8 top technology picks for 2005. We're now halfway into 2005. As a
group, our picks have outperformed the main IT index.
Our calculations use prices as of 26 December 2004 to yesterday (4 July 05), and exclude
dividend income. The returns, presented in order of performance, are as follows:
Pinnacle - UP 98% to 97 (from 49)
Datacentrix - UP 15% to 300 (from 260)
Mustek - UP 5% to 1000 (from 950)
MTN - UP 3% to 4430 (from 4286)
EOH - down 1% to 414 (from 420)
Digicore - down 1% to 144 (from 145)
ERP.com - down 1% to 158 (from 160)
Altech - down 4% to 4400 (from 4600)
An equally weighted portfolio with each of the 8 stocks would have yielded a return of
14%. This is good going, considering that the JSE IT index is up only 3% and the
NASDAQ index is DOWN 5% over the same period. Interestingly, the JSE All Share Index is
up 14%.
In the last 3 months, we have seen further strength from Pinnacle and a good rebound from Altech.
Going forward, we still remain comfortable with our picks for the rest of 2005.
Thursday 30 June 2005
Arivia.kom results - BEE not a differentiator any more
Unlisted large IT outsourcing player, Arivia.kom, released its results for the year to March
2005 yesterday. We have reviewed their results booklet which is downloadable from their web
site.
While we cannot invest in Arivia shares on the JSE, the company's results do give us further
insight into the IT Outsourcing space. Some of its main listed competitors include
Business Connexion, AST Gijima, Didata (more on the networking side) and EOH.
Arivia saw lower IT spend from two of its core clients and shareholders, Eskom and Transnet. It
also noted that deals in the rest of Africa were tougher to conclude. Revenues were down 8% to
ZAR 1.6 bln. The company says there is pressure on profit margins, particularly in the lower
end infrastructure services area. This is to be expected. EBIT margins for Arivia were virtually
unchanged at 5.3%. A net profit of ZAR 64 mln was reported, helped by a lower tax charge.
Just to compare EBIT margins with some of Arivia's competitors from their recent interim
results:
- EOH : 8.8% (interims to Jan05)
- BCX: 4.6% (interims to Nov04)
- Didata: 2.4% (interims to Mar05)
- AST Gijima: EBIT was negative (interims to Dec04)
While some of these comparisons are too simplistic in that the businesses are not the same and
their size differs, it does suggest that for its size, Arivia is relatively quite profitable.
Most interestingly, interpreting the company's comments, BEE credentials are clearly not a
competitive advantage anymore. Some of Arivia's competitors have been able to win business
in the public sector, with their newly found BEE credentials. While this is bad news for Arivia,
it is encouraging for listed players trying to obtain public sector business.
What concerns us is the large decline in Arivia's operating cash flows from ZAR 255 mln to
ZAR 87.5 mln. Owing to lack of detail in their current liabilities on the balance sheet, we
cannot calculate how much of this was related to working capital, but even so, the decline is
very negative in our opinion. Nevertheless, the balance sheet is healthy with ZAR 206 mln of
cash on hand.
Monday 27 January 2005
ISA mgmnt meetings - securely focused on high growth IT Security
We have met several times over the past few months with ISA's founder and CEO, Clifford Katz and
financial director, Ryan Price.
Formerly known as Y3K, the group was created by a merger of ISA, iSecure and Y3K. It will be
transferring its listing to the AltX today. (Share code - ISA)
ISA is a small but fast growing company focused on the high growth IT Security segment. While around
90% of its business is within South Africa (mainly in the corporate sector), the company has
recently been very successful in winning numerous high profile corporate IT Security contracts outside
the country, particularly in Nigeria.
It's a high margin tightly run business with determined management. We believe it can
achieve HEPS growth of 63% in the coming year. On a PE basis, the share looks fairly
priced, but our free cash flow model shows there is good upside. Our current valuation
is 59 cents per share. The share closed on Friday at 47 cents.
At current levels, we would recommend ISA shares to the more speculative investor.
For further insight, read our more detailed ISA
note in our IT section by clicking here.
Thursday 23 June 2005
MTN expansion in perspective
Its good news to see MTN making progress with their African expansion. The company has announced
that it is in the final stages of agreement on acquisitions of 51% of Telecel Cote d'Ivoire
and 100% of Telecel Zambia.
While final terms are unknown, we are confident that MTN has done their homework and would only
finalise the deals if they add value to shareholders.
Cote d'Ivoire is the larger of the two. With a population of 17 million and mobile penetration
of only 10%, healthy growth prospects do exist. On a positive note, Telecel is the number 2
player with 46% market share (800k subscribers) and has only 1 competitor. We also like the
relatively high population density. While the war-divided country does have its fair share of problems,
we believe that MTN has the experience to operate there successfully.
The Zambian opportunity is small. It's a 3 player market with total mobile subscribers
of around 460 thousand. We estimate Telecel's market share to be around 30% or 138k subscribers.
With a population of 11 million, mobile penetration is very low, signalling growth for the
longer term. But the country is relatively poor and sparsely populated.
We estimate the Cote d'Ivoire and Zambia acquisitions to cost around ZAR 1 to 1.5 bln, which
won't significantly dent MTN's cash reserves of ZAR 6.4 bln.
Putting things in perspective though, these opportunities are small in the larger MTN picture.
We believe that with Nigeria, the group is well positioned for growth over the next 2-3 years.
Beyond that, the sheer size of the base will be difficult to grow from unless a much larger
opportunity can be found.
The potential 2nd mobile license in Iran may prove to be just what MTN needs to cement
longer term growth. MTN, which previously bid for this and lost, is in the running again after
the deal with Turkcell appears to have fallen through. With its 70 million population,
relative wealth compared to most African countries and an underserviced mobile sector (only 5
million subscribers with 1 existing player), Iran would be a significant opportunity. However, as
always it depends on the price and the terms of the license.
Nevertheless, MTN's expansion strategy suddenly looks a lot more promising.
Without factoring in any of the above deals, our DCF value for MTN is ZAR 52. We estimate
that the Cote d'Ivoire and Zambia deals would add around ZAR 1.50 to this. At ZAR 47, we
still believe MTN offers upside and would continue recommending the share to investors.
Pinnacle on top
Local PC assembler and distributor, Pinnacle announced yesterday that HEPS and EPS for the
year to June 2005 will be between 55% and 75% higher than last year. This is higher than
our expectation. The share was up 9% yesterday to 93 cents.
The trading update implies a HEPS to June 04 of around 14.6 cents, putting Pinnacle on a PE
of 6, which is still undemanding.
Since we initially commented on the company in November 2004, the share has almost doubled.
We will wait for their results in mid-September, but for the meantime, we believe that further
upside exists.
Tuesday 21 June 2005
Focus on the Storage segment
We will be attending the Storage World Africa exhibition in Sandton today, where some of
the leading international and local players will be showcasing their latest storage technologies.
We will be keeping an eye out for the major trends and try to get a feel for the winners in the
segment.
What is storage? Its an important segment of the broader technology space. It ranges from
the basic hard disk drive in your desktop, through to complex consolidated storage area networks
in large organisations. It encompasses hardware, software and consulting services. A hot area
currently is information lifecycle management, in which companies critically examine all
their internal information and decide who needs what, and how often. They then design a storage
solution around these needs.
Based on our own field research with the local players, we estimate the South African storage
market to be around ZAR 1.5 bln in revenue with growth of 20-30% for the next 2 to 3 years.
We believe gross margins are around the 10% level for the hardware components, which make up
around 50% of the segment. However the services and consulting area has considerably higher
margins, from 30-40%.
As with most IT segments in SA, our local players represent the major international leaders.
Some of the international leaders are EMC, IBM, HP, Hitachi and Sun.
Some of the locally listed leaders are:
Business Connexion - the leading local EMC player
Faritec - the leading IBM player
Dimension Data - has various offerings
Datacentrix - focused on HP
Other local players include unlisted companies like Unisys, Dell, Arivia.kom and Shoden. In
some cases, the international software principals also compete directly.
Friday 10 June 2005
MTN annual results - Fortune favours the brave
We attended the results presentation for the year to March 2005 last night at MTN's new
headquarters in Fairland.
The results were very good in our opinion, displaying the rewards that MTN is now beginning to
reap after taking that bold step into Nigeria a few years ago.
Group turnover was up 21% to ZAR 29 bln. A highlight for us was the group EBITDA
margin increasing to 41.5% from 38% last year. HEPS was up 46% to 385 cents per share.
MTN South Africa performed largely in line with our expectations. Relatively modest top line
growth of around 17% was boosted by a large improvement in the EBITDA margin to 34% (from
30% the year before), mainly as a result of tighter cost controls. Management are aiming for
above 35% in the future. Margin expansion resulted in bottom line (PAT) growth of 51%. By our
calculations, using end of period Equity, MTN South Africa's ROE was 42%.
MTN Nigeria has performed superbly in our opinion. In local currency terms (Nigerian
Naira), revenue grew by 53% on a more than doubling of the subscriber base to 4.4 million
(from 2 million the year before). MTN claims a market share of 47%. Average revenue per
user (ARPU) has declined however by 22% to USD 40, which is to be expected as the market becomes
more deeply penetrated. MTN Nigeria's EBITDA margin, at 52.4%, actually improved
slightly from last year, evidence of the economies of scale being achieved. Bottom line profit
in Nigeria grew by 56%. However, on conversion into a strengthening South African Rand,
the Nigerian growth (both at revenue and PAT) was stunted by around 20%. We
calculate ROE for MTN Nigeria at 36%.
The group is now dominated by two core operations. MTN South Africa
contributes 61% of group revenue and 49% of profit after tax. MTN Nigeria is responsible
for 32% of revenue and 44% of group PAT. While MTN's other African operations performed well,
their significance in the group's numbers is diminishing by the year.
The group continues to produce large amounts of cash. Cash flow from operations (CFO)
was ZAR 9.5 bln. ZAR 7.5 bln was spent on capex, most of which was deployed in Nigeria (5.5 bln).
The group has a strong balance sheet with around ZAR 6.4 bln of cash and ZAR 3.2 bln of debt.
Where to from here? In our opinion, the group is well positioned for above-average growth
for the next two to three years. We expect super growth in Nigeria to more than offset
declining growth in the South African market.
On a discounted free cash flow basis (10 yrs), we derive a present value for MTN of
ZAR 52 per share. In SA, we have assumed a slow down in the growth combined with a decline
in EBITDA margins. Our SA WACC is 14%. For Nigeria, our model projects around 30 mln total subs
for 2010. We have tapered MTN's market share down to 35%, we bring down ARPU's to the low
twenties (USD), and we assume declines in the EBITDA margin. For MTN Nigeria, we use a higher
WACC of 20%. (For further details of our inputs, please contact us directly.)
From a simple earnings point of view, we believe the group should achieve around 30% growth in
HEPS over the next 12 months. At a current share price of ZAR 44.98, MTN is on a 12-month
forward PE of 9, which is not demanding.
While MTN shares have risen considerably over the past year and are closer to our fair value,
we still believe there is upside potential. We continue to recommend MTN shares to investors
at current levels.
Tuesday 7 June 2005
Telkom annual results - rough seas ahead
Telkom management deserve a huge amount of credit for continuing to deliver strong results for
the year to March 2005. Group revenue up 7% to ZAR 43 bln, EBIT margin up to 26% and HEPS growth
of 48% to 1274c per share. A total dividend of 900c for the year puts Telkom on a dividend yield of
around 7.5%!
We attended both presentations (Vodacom and Telkom) yesterday in Midrand.
Telkom's fixed-line business was driven primarily by further cost cutting. As was
expected, its revenue was fairly flat (up only 1.6%). The number of fixed lines stayed constant.
Cost reductions came from lower payments to other operators, services rendered and operating leases.
Also, depreciation & amortisation was around ZAR 1250 mln lower, from what was explained
as an increase in the estimated useful life of some of Telkom's assets. While depreciating too
slowly could be construed as earnings manipulation, we have not yet formulated an opinion on this
practice at Telkom.
Vodacom put in a very strong performance indeed. The key driver was the South African
mobile market, which is not showing any signs of slowing, yet. Revenue grew by 20% and EBIT
by 24%. Although ARPUs are dropping, CEO Alan Knott-Craig is comfortable that the marginal
subscriber is and will continue to be profitable. He estimates a higher saturation level in
South Africa of 31 mln total subscribers. South Africa is still by far the dominant piece of
the Vodacom puzzle, contributing around 92% of revenue and 95% of operating profit (excluding the
loss-making Mozambique operation).
But where to from here? We believe its going to be more challenging in the years ahead as
the fixed-line business increasingly struggles to cut costs further and faces more
competition while Vodacom feels the pinch from a maturing South African mobile market.
Competition in the fixed-line business will come. Although the long awaited SNO may not
pose a serious competitive threat initially, it should negatively affect Telkom's pricing power
and profitability in the long run. The market size is limited and in our opinion, Telkom will
face increased competition from many other angles too, such as alternative voice carriers, VANs
and ISP's. Its going to be tough. Lets see if the new CEO (whoever he or she may be) is
able to navigate the turbulence ahead. Telkom's data business, while showing promise (16% growth),
is only a fraction of the overall fixed-line segment - 18% of revenue - so it can't "carry the
huge ocean liner" alone.
On the mobile front, the SA market is growing faster than we initially thought. But we
believe it will eventually slow, and when it does, Vodacom will feel it. The problem is that
Vodacom's other African operations are too small to carry the group when growth slows in
SA. The potential deal with Virgin in Nigeria would help tremendously to alleviate this. If done
at the right price and terms, we believe Vodacom's growth profile would change considerably, for
the better.
On a simplistic one-year forward view, the investment case for Telkom still looks compelling.
We doubt the SNO will have any significant effect on the fixed-line business to March 2006 and
there are probably still some efficiency gains to be had from cost cuts, albeit reduced. For
Vodacom, while we believe the SA mobile market will slow considerably in two or three years
time, there still should be good growth in the year ahead. Given that HEPS grew by 48% this year,
a growth of 20% seems achievable for the year ahead. This would put Telkom on a forward PE of
below 8 times with a dividend yield of 7 to 8%.
However, the picture is not as rosy if one values the businesses using a longer forecast
horizon (10 yrs) with a discounted free cash flow to the firm technique. We forecast a loss
of market share to the SNO of 18% in five years, with a gentle decline in the fixed-line EBIT
margin to the late teens. For Vodacom's current businesses (excluding the Nigeria possibility),
we forecast the SA market to slow considerably in 2 years time. We have also tapered off Vodacom's
EBIT margins to the late teens. We use a WACC of 14% for the fixed-line business and 15% for
Vodacom. Our current DCF value for Telkom comes out at ZAR 126 per share.
We feel that our longer term DCF based valuation is more sensible, given the changes expected in
the medium term. We conclude that Telkom is fairly valued at current levels and would
recommend that investors take some profits.
Friday 6 May 2005
Altech annual results - a glimpse of what's to come
We attended the results presentation yesterday. Overall, the group numbers to Feb 05 were solid,
boosted by the acquisition of NamiTech. Group revenue was up 34% to ZAR 5.5 bln. EBITA
margin was up to 8.9% from 8% last year. HEPS grew by 12% to 339 cents per share.
The foundation for the group's future growth appears to have been cemented by the Altech/Econet/Wireless
(AEW) joint venture, which contributed for the last two months of the year.
We now turn our attention to the major operating subsidiaries, which collectively contributed 88%
of group revenue and EBITA. (The discussions below are based on our calculations of each unit's
performance from the additional segmental disclosures given in the presentation.)
AUTOPAGE is "pumping" (23% rev growth to ZAR 3263 mln) at stable EBITA margins (of around
6.6%). This remains the consistent pillar of strength for the group.
NETSTAR is doing well, but top-line growth is slowing. Revenue grew by 15% to ZAR
394 mln (vs 36% last year). However, the EBITA margin increased to around 23.6% from the 16%
level last year. Management needs to grow this business in other areas. To this end, OEM deals with
Nissan and LandRover have been signed in SA and Netstar will be launching in Nigeria around
mid 2005.
NamiTech has been included for its first full year. Its revenue was around ZAR 731 mln and
we calculate an EBITA margin of 16.7%. Margins are declining for the prepaid voucher and SIM card
areas, from competitive pressures and demanding cellular operators. Going forward, NamiTech will
have to increasingly rely on higher volumes. The soon to be launched manufacturing facility in Nigeria
bodes well for NamiTech, going forward.
UEC was the only problem area for the group. Despite 8% unit sales growth (in set top
boxes), revenue was down 6% to ZAR 563 mln. Given that the average ZAR/USD strengthened by some
13% this period (7.3 to 6.32), this is understandable. It would appear that dollar unit prices
are stable. However, UEC's EBITA was zero (from ZAR 29 mln the prior year). Management
claims that the business has been restructured to compete at an exchange rate of 6 ZAR/USD and
is committed to turning it around. Time will tell.
An exciting factor in these results was the glimpse we got of the AEW joint venture,
included for the last two months of the year. For example, Altech's effective 20% stake
of Mascom in Botswana (a mobile operator) contributed ZAR 12 mln (in associate income) for the
2 months.
If one excludes the acquisition of NamiTech, group revenue would have grown 13%
(versus 34%). We calculate that HEPS would have declined by 12% without this acquisition. Also,
HEPS was further assisted this year by a 6% decline in the weighted average shares in issue,
from the share buyback.
As always, the group is highly cash generative. Its balance sheet remains strong with
cash on hand of ZAR 812 mln and debt of ZAR 70 mln. Return on Equity for the period was
above 20%.
Going forward to Feb 2006, we forecast 13% group revenue growth and a stable group EBITA
margin of around 8.7%. We have factored in a continued good performance for AUTOPAGE, slowing
growth and margin pressure for NETSTAR, a slight turnaround at UEC and margin
pressure for NamiTech. However, the AEW joint venture should boost bottom line
profit tremendously in the year ahead. We estimate associate income of around 80 mln from
MASCOM in Botswana alone. We forecast bottom line HEPS growth of 31% to 443 cents per share.
Much depends on the arbitration ruling regarding the potential for AEW to increase their
stake in the Nigerian mobile operation from the current 5%. It could be increased to 33% or even
as high as 50%+. If the ruling is in Altech's favour, and the price is right, the group's profile
will change dramatically overnight. We have not factored any of this into our forecasts.
At 3760, Altech is on a P/E of 11.1. Our 31% HEPS growth forecast (which we believe is
conservative), puts Altech on an attractive forward P/E of 8.5. Assuming the same dividend
cover, the forward dividend yield is around 5.9%, which is high.
Given the group's track record and pedigree, undemanding valuation, good growth expected for
the coming year and the potential for massive upside if the arbitration ruling goes in their
favour, we continue to recommend Altech shares to investors at current levels.
Thursday 21 April 2005
EOH interim results - growing in size, stature and prominence
We attended the analyst presentation yesterday for EOH's interim results to January 2005. The
numbers were solid and in line with our expectations.
Revenue was up 28% year on year to ZAR 188 mln. Although this was assisted somewhat by
the acquisition of GBI and the merger with Mthombo IT Services (effective since Nov 04), organic
growth remains healthy.
The key feature for us was the increase in EBITA margin to 9.4%. It was at this
level in 2003, but dropped considerably during the 2004 year to around 7.5%, because of the
"integration costs" of the Atos KPMG acquisition. At that stage, management promised that the
margins would return. Indeed, they have and management should be commended for this. In our
opinion, this level of margin is sustainable.
Despite the action happening at the top line and the margin level, HEPS was up only 22% to 24
cents per share. It was negatively impacted by lower interest earned and a return to full tax
rates (which we anticipated and commented on in our note at the full year).
Cash flow from operations was a healthy ZAR 21 mln and the balance sheet remains strong as usual.
Going forward, prospects continue to look good for EOH. They have grown in size, stature
and prominence in the IT Services space in South Africa and are winning larger deals. Their
recent BEE merger should also bring further opportunities.
However, EOH now has 900 employees. It is a complex operation with many business units in
various IT Services areas. In our opinion, the challenge, going forward, will be to
manage the complexity while achieving growth.
For the full year to July 2005, we forecast HEPS growth of 17% to 50 cents per share. It
is based on 33% revenue growth and an EBITA margin of 9.2%. It is negatively affected by full
tax rates and a higher number of weighted shares in issue (from the M-IT merger).
At 420 cents, EOH is currently on a 12-month rolling historic PE of 8.9 and a forward PE
(to Jul 05) of 8.4 which is undemanding. Given the company's track record, bright prospects
and undemanding multiples, we believe there is further upside in the share. We continue to
recommend EOH to investors at current levels.
Wednesday 20 April 2005
Jasco annual results - turnaround complete
We attended the analyst presentation yesterday for Jasco's annual results to February 2005. All
round, a very good set of numbers in our opinion, considering where the company was a few years
ago.
Although revenue was down 4% to ZAR 248 mln, a healthy improvement in the EBIT margin
to 6.1% (from 2.4% last year) boosted profits. HEPS of 16.3 cents was reported, spot
on with our forecast at the interim stage. Generally, revenues were stifled by the stronger Rand
(on Jasco's export sales), while margins were improved by focusing on efficiencies.
Segmentally, the revenue in the Telecoms division declined 10%, but its margins improved
significantly over last year. The Manufacturing operation continued to perform solidly (15%
revenue growth and stable margins) on the back of continued buoyant consumer demand for "white
goods." The Security operation surprised us on the upside with an impressive turnaround.
Without doubt, a major feature in these results was the strong operating cash flow (CFO) of
ZAR 22 mln and the strengthening of the balance sheet. CFO was helped by not paying cash
tax (the group has a deferred tax asset.) Nevertheless, the group has paid off all its debt and
the balance sheet is solid.
Going forward, we believe that the momentum generated over the past year will continue. We
forecast a growth in HEPS of 41% to 23 cents per share. Without delving into segmental
specifics, we expect a return to group revenue growth of around 6% and a further improvement in
the group EBIT margin to just under 8%. Our HEPS forecast for next year is assisted greatly by
a reduction in interest charges owing to the debt free balance sheet. The effect of this
is around 4 cents per share.
Jasco shares have more than doubled to 220 cents since we initially commented on the company in
July 2004. It is now on a PE of 13.5 and based on our HEPS forecast, its forward PE is
9.6. We believe that at current levels, the share is fairly valued. We would be holders.
Thursday 14 April 2005
Performance of our top technology picks for 2005
A while back, we sent out our 8 top technology picks for 2005. As a group, they have performed
well despite declines in the main technology indices over the same time.
Our calculations use prices as of 26 December 2004 to yesterday (13 April 05), and exclude
dividend income. The returns, presented in order of performance, are as follows:
Pinnacle - UP 61% to 79 (from 49)
Datacentrix - UP 14% to 297 (from 260)
Digicore - UP 6% to 154 (from 145)
Mustek - unchanged at 950
EOH - down 1% to 410 (from 420)
MTN - down 1% to 4230 (from 4286)
ERP.com - down 2% to 157 (from 160)
Altech - down 16% to 3875 (from 4600)
An equally weighted portfolio with each of the 8 stocks would have yielded a return of 8%.
This is good going, considering that the JSE IT index and NASDAQ index were DOWN by 7% and 9%
respectively, over the same period. Interestingly, the JSE All Share Index was up 4%.
Going forward, we still remain comfortable with our picks for the rest of 2005.
Wednesday 6 April 2005
Datacentrix annual results - consistently robust
Yesterday, IT infrastructure and services player - Datacentrix, released annual results for the
year to February 2005. They were spot on with our predictions at the interim stage.
Revenue was up 17% to ZAR 897 mln, the EBIT margin improved to 7% (from 5.4% last
year) and a HEPS growth of 31% to 27 cents per share was posted.
Unfortunately, we did not attend the presentation where management usually discloses dollar
revenue growth. Nevertheless, we calculate that the Rand strengthened by some 13% compared to
the previous year. Underlying dollar revenue growth must have been in the region of 32%,
a star performance if one considers that the company has to contend with price deflation on
certain IT products. Further margin improvement explained the rest of the increase to the bottom
line.
Cash flow from operations was a solid ZAR 70 mln, with what appears to be improved
working capital management from the previous year. Despite the healthy increase in business
activity, inventories and receivables were constant. The balance sheet remains strong with a
large ZAR 167 mln in cash and no debt.
Going forward, for the year to February 2006, we believe that business activity at Datacentrix
will remain strong with good growth prospects, given their relatively smaller size, focused strategy
and what we believe to be excellent management. Given a more stable Rand, Rand revenue growth of
around 25-30% is achievable. We believe margins can be maintained, so a HEPS growth of around
25% is attainable.
At 310 cents, Datacentrix is currently on a PE of 11.4 and a "core PE" of 9.5
(stripping out cash and after-tax interest earned), which we believe is undemanding. If this
rating is maintained, we should see a share price appreciation in line with earnings growth of
around 25%.
We continue to recommend Datacentrix to investors at current levels.
Thursday 3 March 2005
ERP.com interims - a tough first half, as expected
Yesterday, ERP.com released interim results for the 6 months to January 2005. We have discussed
them with management.
On the surface, the results appear to be average with revenue up 8% to ZAR 76 mln and HEPS up 9%
to 7.4 cents per share. However, this was in line with our expectations and we are confident the
group will meet our more upbeat forecasts for the full year to July.
Segmentally, the performance was mixed. As usual, the IT Security business performed well, but
the Enterprise Applications area slowed down further. Management is confident this area
will improve dramatically in the second half with a major contract win.
We calculate that the group EBIT margin declined to around 21% from 23% at the full year.
Our forecast for the full year is around 21% which we believe can be achieved. This is still
considerably higher than most other IT companies and in our opinion, is one of the key features
of ERP.com.
Cash flow from operations was a negative ZAR 4.5 mln. The main reasons for this were a
large delayed tax payment carried forward from the full year, which we expected and working capital
requirements to the tune of ZAR 12.8 mln. Although this did surprise us somewhat, management
explained that some customers did not pay their bills until just after the period ended. Also,
some creditors were paid earlier in order to receive benefits. We are confident that the cash
situation will reverse for the full year to July. The group is still debt free and now
has around ZAR 49 mln of cash on hand.
Going forward, we are comfortable with our original HEPS forecast of 16.5 cents per share
to July 2005. (We are expecting 27% revenue growth, a slight decline in margins and 17% HEPS
growth.)
Our discounted free cash flow valuation yields a value of 205 cents per share.
(We use a "steep" WACC of 17%, since the group has no debt and a terminal growth rate of 6%).
At yesterday's close price of 162 cents, we believe there is still considerable upside and
would recommend the share to investors.
Tuesday 1 March 2005
Mustek interims - back to the future
Mustek has released interim results for the six months to December 2004. All-round, they were
good and in line with our expectations. We have discussed the results with management.
Revenue was up 15% year on year to ZAR 1.3 bln. Profitability rose sharply compared to the
corresponding period last year which had major losses from foreign exchange cover. The EBIT
margin for the period has returned to a more reasonable 6.2%. A HEPS of 44 cents per share was
posted.
Segmentally, the performance appears to be varied. According to management, Mecer,
which assembles and sells Mecer branded computers only grew unit sales by around 6%. What
is encouraging though is that despite the Rand strengthening by 12% to the USD (compared
to the corresponding period last year), Mecer managed to keep its revenues fairly constant
(up 1% to around ZAR 637 mln). This would imply that the Rand strength had a "subdued" effect on
unit prices, which we believe is positive. Rectron, which sells PC components put in a
stellar performance, growing revenue year on year by 27% to around ZAR 611 mln.
Overall, the group's gross profit margin did decline slightly. Management attribute this mainly
to small losses incurred by the group's infant operations in Brazil and Paraguay.
The negative cash flow from operations is fairly normal for Mustek's interim period and is
mainly a result of cyclical working capital requirements, which should reverse in the next half.
The group's balance sheet remains healthy.
Going forward, we remain comfortable with our forecast of 110 cents per share for the
full year to June 2005. At yesterday's close of 950, it puts Mustek on a 6-month forward PE of
around 8.6 times, which we feel is attractive.
Given its undemanding valuation, high dividend yield of around 5%, the quality
of its operation and strong position in the local market with good future prospects,
we continue to recommend Mustek to investors at current levels.
Tuesday 22 February 2005
Pinnacle interims - on target for a good full-year
Yesterday, local PC assembler and distributor - Pinnacle, released interim results for the six
months to Dec 2004. Overall, the results were in line with our expectations. We did discuss them
with management.
Revenue grew by 10% to ZAR 201 mln, once again impacted by Rand strength and dollar price
declines of PC equipment. Although unconfirmed, we believe unit sales growth was considerably
higher than this. Nevertheless, the group EBIT margin improved to 4.4% from 4% at the
full year. This is very positive since profits are highly sensitive to margins. In a previous
management meeting, management indicated that they aim to improve the EBIT margin to the 5-6%
level over time. HEPS grew by 105% to 4.1 cents per share. It was assisted by a lower
net interest charge.
Of concern to us was the negative cash flow from operations of ZAR 10.7 mln. However
management explained that this was a result of "stocking" up for large orders received and the
usual cyclical working capital requirements for the business in the first half. We see that
working capital did increase by around 25 mln compared to the full year. We anticipate this
situation reversing over the next 6 months.
As a result, although still healthy, the balance sheet has weakened. The group has around ZAR 6
mln in cash and ZAR 25 mln of debt.
Another concern is that the segmental NET profit margin of their core business (Infrastructure and Support)
declined to 2.1% from 2.6% for the full year. The group does not disclose EBIT margins segmentally,
so its difficult to assess the true operating reasons for this decline. We have asked for public
disclosure of segmental EBIT, so this can be analysed further. In our opinion, we believe that
the overall group EBIT margin improved as a result of improvements in Pinnacle's other smaller
segments.
Going forward, we are still comfortable with our original HEPS forecast of 29% growth to
around 11.5 cents per share to June 2005. (We use 12% revenue growth and 4.5% EBIT margin.)
At yesterday's close price of 87 cents, Pinnacle is now on a forward PE of around 7.6,
which we believe is still attractive.
Although the share has appreciated considerably in the last few months, we continue to
recommend it to investors at current levels.
Tuesday 15 February 2005
BCX interims - holding steady
Yesterday, Business Connexion announced interim results for the six months to November 2004. We
have discussed the numbers with management. Overall, it was a steady set of results. A good
performance in the South African operation was tainted somewhat by a poor "Rest of Africa".
At group level, revenue was down 4% year-on-year to ZAR 1.36 bln. While gross profit
margins improved healthily to 32% from 29% at the full year (in May 04), EBIT margins stayed
fairly constant at 4.6%. According to management this was mainly due to the Comparex/Business
Connexion merger costs. HEPS grew by an impressive 46% y-o-y to 23.2 cents. This was
helped by higher investment income, lower interest charges and a lower tax rate.
The balance sheet remains strong with ZAR 812 mln in cash and ZAR 243 mln of
interest bearing debt. Cash flows from operations were a positive ZAR 37 mln for the period.
Segmentally, there was a mixed performance. The pillar of strength at BCX is its
"Services" segment (mainly IT outsourcing) which makes up around 65% of group revenue. This
segment held steady with revenue growth of 2% at fairly constant EBIT margins of 9.1%.
"Business applications" grew revenue by 33%, largely assisted by the Business Connexion merger
and other acquisitions. It broke even this period from a loss at the full year. The "technology
infrastructure" segment was hit hard and made losses this period with large declines in revenue.
Management feels that the IT sector is still sluggish. They explain that there is still
pressure on infrastructure margins and some "holding back" on large business application projects.
With a fair amount of fixed costs in these segments, management is of the opinion that margins
will improve as revenue grows. Their outlook appears to us to be mildly optimistic.
Nevertheless, on a geographical basis, the performance in South Africa was reassuring with
revenue up 7% and EBIT margins up to 5.7% from 4.1% at the full year. Interestingly, this is fairly
similar to the performance of Didata's African region to Sep04 (revenue up in constant currency
by 8% and margins of around 6%).
Going forward, we forecast HEPS of 48 cents for the year to May 2005. At yesterday's close
of 486 cents, BCX is on a forward PE (to Mar 05) of around 10 times. If we strip out the cash
(812 mln) from its market cap and the after tax investment income, we derive a forward "core"
PE of 7 times which appears attractive.
Given BCX's strong position in South Africa, its blue-chip client base and enough room for
improvement, we feel that the share offers value at current levels.
Wednesday 2 February 2005
EOH transformation deal looks good overall
EOH has announced the particulars of its proposed transformation deal. It includes the
acquisition of black owned IT infrastructure services player, Mthombo IT Services and
the creation of a staff share trust for black staff.
Mthombo is a sizeable player in the infrastructure services arena. It has around 200 staff
and some large contracts with clients such as Telkom, Sappi and SARS. In our opinion, its
business would complement that of EOH. We also believe that client cross-pollination
synergies exist.
EOH will be paying approximately ZAR 39.6 mln for Mthombo. (8mln EOH shares and ZAR 6mln cash).
On Mthombo's PAT of ZAR 4.85 mln to June 2004, we derive a historic PE multiple of 8,2 times.
We feel this is a bit high. EOH is not getting a bargain here. (EOH's PE is around 8.9)
However, we are told by EOH management that Mthombo has grown well and has good growth prospects.
In any event, based on the extra 8 million shares, the deal will initially be neutral to earnings for
EOH as shown by the proforma calculations in the SENS announcement.
The other aspect of EOH's transformation is the staff share trust. EOH will be issuing 9.18mln
new shares to the trust. These shares will not dilute HEPS initially. However, as they
are allocated to black staff members over the coming years, they will have a dilutionary effect.
Overall, we are comfortable with the proposed transformation. We believe that Mthombo will bring
synergies to the group and that the deal will do well in bolstering EOH's BEE credentials.
Wednesday 26 January 2005
Our top technology stock picks for 2005
Of our universe of 41 technology stocks that we keep an eye on, we have selected the following
eight top picks for 2005. Our choices are based on a number of things including
solidity of fundamentals, quality of management, track record, growth potential and
undemanding valuations.
The stocks below are presented in no particular order. If you have any questions on any specific
company, just give us a shout...
Mustek - on a good earnings story to June 2005 with a more stable Rand.
Pinnacle - undervalued in our opinion.
Datacentrix - consistent solid fundamentals and good management. Room for growth. Will
benefit from a more stable Rand.
EOH - consistent solid fundamentals and good management. Room for growth. Good earnings
boost if margins can be improved from "bedding" down recent acquisitions.
ERP.com - consistent solid fundamentals and good management. Good play on IT Security, a
small but fast growing sub segment.
Altech - on consistent fundamentals of the underlying business. UEC to do better this
year with a more stable Rand. And the inclusion of Econet for longer term growth.
Digicore - good base fundamentals - significant blue sky potential offshore. We like its
intellectual property.
MTN - the top African cellular play for global investors. Good growth in Nigeria
and other African operations for at least the next 2 to 3 years. Stable cash generating position
in South Africa.
Wednesday 12 January 2005
More consolidation in the US cellular arena
Alltel has bought Western Wireless for USD 4.4 bln, making it the fifth largest
wireless carrier in the US. Western Wireless has 1.4mln US mobile customers and 1.6mln foreign
customers in Austria and Ireland.
For the last 4 quarters, Western Wireless had revenues of USD 1.8 bln and net income of USD 107
mln. The valuation puts it on a trailing 12 month PE of 41, which is very high in our opinion.
As of Q3 2004, Western Wireless had a total of 3 mln subscribers. The valuation yields a market
value per subscriber of USD 1467. This is above MTN's market value per subscriber of around
USD 1000.
WBS to roll out Internet access in townships and rural areas
It is encouraging to hear that Wireless Business Solutions (WBS) is planning to target
townships and rural areas with its high speed wireless Internet access product, iBurst.
The rural roll out will form part of a planned ZAR 400 mln project.
Friday 7 January 2005
The best and worst technology performers of 2004
2004 was a good year. Of the 41 technology stocks that we keep an eye on, 26 were up for
the year, 2 remained unchanged and only 10 were down. 3 were not listed for the
full year. Our technology universe is made up of Telecoms, the various IT sub-sectors (HW,
SW&Svcs, Electronics & Electrical) and some selections from ALTX and the venture capital area.
The best five performers in 2004:
Y3K Group: +540%
Digicore: +230%
EOH: +114%
Jasco: +94%
FrontRange: +93%
The worst five performers in 2004:
Square One: -70%
CSHoldings: -63%
Glotec: -50%
AST: -43%
Datatec: -26%
Note: the above percentages reflect the change in share price only. We have not factored dividends
into the total return calculation. Interestingly, the mean performance (arithmetic average) for
2004 was +41%.
Even more interesting - the following 12 stocks showed a return of 30% or more in BOTH 2003 AND
2004: Y3K Group, Digicore, Pinnacle, ERP.com, MTN, Control Instruments, FrontRange, EOH,
Datacentrix, Altron Preference Shares, Altech, Mustek.
Notice the appearance of MTN in the above list! It was up 131% in 2003 and 53% in 2004.
These percentages are unusual for a stock as large as MTN.
Selected company commentaries
Y3K Group
We believe the recent merger with ISA and its interim results have caused the stock to shoot up
to a new level. This will be one to watch closely in 2005. In an IT Security thematic report in
December 2004, we rated Y3K/ISA as one of the top 3 South African IT Security players. This is a
segment which is growing fast.
Digicore
The company has been a solid performer with good results. Its future will increasingly rely on
internationalisation of its fleet management and vehicle tracking technologies.
EOH
This was one of our top picks earlier in 2004. We're not surprised it has done so well. It has
been a consistent performer in the IT Services space - mainly with ERP systems. The key
challenges will be to bed down acquisitions and move forward in a toughly competitive market.
FrontRange
It has done well fundamentally, despite a tough international market. This software developer
has a big challenge ahead as it tries to widen its product set and take on many established
international players. The "fat" has largely been cut - it must now build revenues.
CSHoldings
The demise of this IT Services group is a pity, since it did shine brightly at one stage.
Perhaps the fate of CSH with regard to its accounting practices is a good thing for our market,
since it sends a strong message to other companies to report honestly. Its new home at BTG is
bound to be a good one. Watch this space.
Glotec
We were initially optimistic that experienced Graeme Victor could turn the troubled group around
since his appointment in 2003. We were wrong. We're not implying that he is incapable - his
credentials are excellent. Perhaps the problems were just too "ingrained". Glotec will shortly
be delisted.
AST
Its been a long hard struggle for this IT Services group over the past year. With its turnaround
just starting to bear fruit, the recent dilutive rights offer came at the wrong time for its
performance in 2004. Nevertheless, with most of the restructuring and corporate activity out of
the way, we are fairly confident that the tide will turn at some point in 2005.
Datatec
The struggle to improve profit margins continues to plague Datatec. We think its going to
continue to be tough in the coming year.
2004 Newsflow commentary archive
2003 Newsflow commentary archive
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